DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a strong blocking ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over northeast Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing cold/very cold temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough along and off the west coast of the U.S. A trough over southwest Canada extending into south-central Canada and the north-central U.S. and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located along the west coast of Florida.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement during the next 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska extending across northern Canada and a weak trough over Greenland. This will be a cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong trough over the western U.S. and a flat ridge over the south-central and southeast U.S. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the west moving along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. This will be a stormy pattern for the south-central and eastern U.S. including the southern and eastern Midwest. Temperatures will be colder the further to the north you head more variable to the south.

This pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east. The northern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...91 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW THU...46 BELOW ZERO AT HAVRE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…NASHVILLE TN 2.35 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period.

The northern branch of the jet stream will feature a blocking ridge over Alaska extending across northern Canada. This will be a cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a strong trough over the western US and a flat ridge over the south-central and southeast US. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the west moving along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. This will be a stormy pattern for the south-central and eastern US including the southern and eastern Midwest. Temperatures will be colder the further to the north you head more variable to the south.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Hot/dry weather stresses pod filling soybeans in southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul and Parana). Some beneficial rains and cooler temperatures are expected early next week. Some recent beneficial rains for late pod filling soybeans in central Brazil and for developing cane and coffee.

Any rain in central Brazil will benefit the safrina corn crop which is currently being planted.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Favorable weather for developing corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRANSPORT): A stormy weather pattern for the Midwest along with episodes of cold weather will impact transportation and stress livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for overwintering wheat in the southern plains with mostly adequate soil moisture and no damaging cold. Favorable conditions for cattle in the feedlots.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Beneficial rain fell in western sections of the corn belt, helping to stabilize crops impacted by earlier periods of dryness. Following a brief period of beneficial rain in late December, a general trend of drier- and warmer-than-normal weather dominated much of the region through January. The unseasonable warmth and dryness in the western corn belt coincided with the latter stages of summer crop planting, and the relatively poor conditions raised concern that some area may have remained unplanted. Rainfall has generally been more consistent in eastern sections of the corn belt.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for overwintering crops. Autumn drought limited winter crop emergence and establishment from eastern France and the Low Countries into Germany and northwestern Poland as well as portions of the western and central Balkans; producers will likely need to replant in the spring in the worst drought areas.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Some beneficial precipitation over central and southern areas.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Some beneficial rain for winter wheat.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light to locally moderate snow over eastern areas. Temperatures below to much below normal.

East: Moderate to heavy rain over southern and eastern areas. Some light mixed precipitation in the northwest. Temperatures much below normal.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Light to moderate snow Sunday. Snow redevelops on Monday continuing on Tuesday. Moderate to heavy amounts are expected. Dry weather Wednesday. Chance of snow on Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below to much below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

East: Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Episodes of mixed precipitation Sunday-Monday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry conditions or just some lingering light precipitation Tuesday. Dry weather Wednesday. Chance of snow on Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, variable Monday, above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Dry conditions. Temperatures much below normal.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Dry weather through Sunday. Chance of some light mixed precipitation Monday. Dry weather Tuesday-Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal Friday, variable Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, variable Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the low 90s f.

Forecast...

Mostly dry weather through Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Monday ending on Tuesday. Some moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, variable Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the 90s f.

Forecast...

Daily episodes of scattered light showers with locally heavier through Monday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday-Thursday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, variable Wednesday-Thursday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Dry weather observed. Temperatures near normal levels.

Forecast...

Mostly dry weather Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Sunday ending Monday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Thursday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast...

Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier Friday. Dry weather Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Dry weather Monday-Thursday. Temperatures variable Friday, near to above normal Saturday, variable Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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