DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over northeast Greenland. This is producing mild weather in far western Canada, cool/cold central, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough over the central U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the Greater Antilles.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 10 days. During the 6-10 day period. The northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and far western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and some weak ridging over Greenland. This will be a cold pattern for much of Canada except the far west. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. The polar vortex over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge over the western atlantic. Indications are that the trough may be far enough to the east to limit precipitation over the central U.S. however this is less certain in the eastern Midwest and Delta states. It will be a cold pattern over the north-central U.S. under the polar vortex. More variable to the south. Warmer out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature mostly below normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east during the next 5 days, below normal west, near to below normal east days 6-10. The northern plains will see mostly below normal temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...86 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW TUE...35 BELOW ZERO AT 2 MILES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA NY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…ALLENTOWN PA 0.46 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, except that the European model features and deeper surface low and more precipitation over the eastern Midwest during Monday. Trailing behind this surface low and upper trough will be another surge of very cold temperatures coming southward out of the central Canada region. Later in the period the flow over the central US may weaken somewhat allowing for some moderation in temperatures but this is uncertain.

The mean maps at 8-10 days out feature a strong high latitude blocking ridge centered over or just northwest of Alaska. A weaker high latitude ridge is indicated in northeast Canada and Greenland. To the south of these high latitude features we see a ridge-trough-ridge pattern from the east Pacific to the west Atlantic. The polar vortex, forced south by the high latitude ridges, is indicated between Hudson Bay Canada and the Great Lakes region. This remains a cold pattern for the central US and somewhat cold in the east as well. The western US should be warmer. The southern branch of the jet stream remains hard to pick out on these maps but is suggested in the area of the northwest Caribbean, south Florida and the Bahamas and then in the western Atlantic somewhere.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN: A strong upper level ridge is centered over northern Argentina and Paraguay today, extending into southern Brazil near Parana. The ridge is expected to weaken somewhat during the coming days but not enough to allow for a significant change in the pattern. Also of note, upper level forecasts suggest that the region just north of the strong southern jet stream and south of the ridge position may turn very hot early next week as indicated by the thickness of the Atmosphere between 500 and 1000mb. This implies a potential for 100 degree temperatures in and near southern Santa Fe Argentina next Monday or Tuesday.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE): Dryness remains a significant concern for pod filling soybeans from Parana north to Mato Grosso and northeast to Bahia. Dry weather does favor the harvest, which is advanced due to forcing caused by the dryness. In RGDS a mixed outlook as some areas are having problems due to heavy rain and flooding while other areas are doing much better. Scattered showers indicated in Mato Grosso this coming weekend should not be enough to significantly impact the harvest of Soybeans and may provide some needed moisture for planting safrina corn which follows the soybean harvest.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Drier weekend weather helped fields that have been impacted by heavy rains this growing season. However, heavy thunderstorms are back in the area today. It appears that production in areas of favorable moisture supplies may offset production losses in areas of very wet conditions, at least at this time. Hot temperatures mentioned for early next week are not overly concerning at this time due to adequate and surplus soil moisture currently in the region but this will be watched.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Snow and ice in the west and north-central Midwest yesterday and early today will likely impact transport.

Improving conditions after today. A fast moving, Alberta type, low will bring snow to some areas again this weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Generally favorable conditions for overwintering wheat in the southern plains with adequate soil moisture. There is no damaging cold weather indicated.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): More rain would benefit in some areas.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Episodes of snow is likely to be causing transport delays in Europe this winter. Snow cover remains adequate to protect the winter grains crop in much of the Ukraine at this time.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather. Precipitation is mostly confined to the Yangtze Valley. Seasonally dry in the North China Plain.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Rain and thunderstorms in Pakistan and northwest to north-central India since the weekend will provide a favorable boost to soil moisture supplies for winter wheat and rapeseed. However, some locations may have experienced flooding and local wind damage with the strongest of these thunderstorms. In general and net benefit to the crops indicated.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Snow, ice and some rain yestern changed to mostly snow during the night.

Precipitation mainly from southeast Nebraska through south and east Iowa and Missouri. Snowfall is likely to average 3-6 inches in south and east Iowa with locally heavier possible. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal north and central areas and above normal south for the afternoon highs.

East: Mixed precipitation and snow northwest and north areas yesterday or last night. Rain or showers elsewhere in the region, along with strong wind gusts.

Heaviest rain southwest and central Illinois, north Indiana and northwest Ohio...so far. Temperatures averaged below normal east and near to above normal west yesterday.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Windy with light snow lingering in eastern areas early today, dry later in the day. Mostly dry Thursday. Chance for light snow or snow showers during Friday. Temperatures below normal today and Thursday, well below normal Friday.

Low temperatures Friday morning likley fall below minus 10 F in eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, north-central and northeast Iowa.

Mostly dry Saturday. Snow or snow squalls likely Sunday and Sunday night, heaviest north and east areas. Drier again during Monday. Temperatures continue extremely cold Saturday with some moderations likely Sunday and Monday...especially through west and south areas.

East: Snow northwest and far northeast areas today. Rain or showers and thundershowers elsewhere in the region may change to snow before ending tonight. Dry or with only snow showers or squalls northeast areas Thursday. A period of light snow or snow showers for some areas Friday. Temperatures fall during the day today through western areas while in the east it continues fairly warm today. Colder and then much colder Thursday and Friday. Lows Friday morning range minus 14f in northwest areas to about plus 10 in extreme southern Illinois.

Mostly dry Saturday. Light snow or snow showers Sunday. Heavier snow north and rain or showers south during Monday or early Tuesday. Temperatures below or much below normal Saturday and Sunday. Cold north, somewhat warmer south, during Monday. Southern areas likely turn cold again during Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal during this period. Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Light precipitation favoring north and east-central areas yesterday. Heavier showers or rain southeast areas during this time, especially southeast Oklahoma and east Texas. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north and above normal south yesterday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures should be colder today, tonight and during Thursday. Warmer Friday, especially in western and southern areas.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Snow showers, possibly squalls, favoring north and east areas during Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, turning colder during Monday, cold Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures may be cold early in this period but readings should moderate middle to late in the period. Precipitation below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Highs yesterday were mostly 89 to 99F, hottest west and north Parana and west RGDS.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier today through Friday. Temperatures average above normal. Highs from the upper 80s to the upper 90s F during this period.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above normal with highs in the upper 80s to the upper 90s F.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Dry or with only a few showers in northwest areas during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures above normal with highs yesterday mostly 95 to 100F, except northwest areas were not that hot.

Forecast...

A few afternoon thundershowers favoring east and north areas today through Friday. The activity should mostly light to locally moderate. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures above normal. Highs in the low to upper 90s and possibly the low 100s F.

Scattered showers and thundershowers will be in the region Saturday and Sunday, especially likely over Mato Grosso. Drier again during Monday.

Temperatures moderate somewhat while showers are in the area.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Mostly dry and hot yesterday. Highs averaging 90-95F. Thunderstorms have developed during the night in northern Buenos Aires, eastern Cordoba and southern Santa Fe. The activity looks to be heavy.

Forecast...

Scattered thunderstorms favoring central and northeast areas today, southern and the western areas tomorrow and Friday. Thunderstorms Friday may also return to some central areas. Temperatures vary somewhat with the thunderstorm activity, tending to near to below normal south and above normal north of where these storms are occurring.

Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms during Saturday. Drier Sunday and Monday. Temperatures not very hot Saturday, hot or very hot Sunday and especially Monday and Tuesday. Highs might reach to 100F during this time frame, depending on cloud cover. 0

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

A few thundershowers were reported in north-central and east areas yesterday or last night. Much of the area remained dry. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday mostly 88 to 96F.

Forecast...

Mainly dry today. Scattered showers and thundershowers develop in the west before spreading east tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average above normal today and Thursday, somewhat cooler Friday.

Mainly dry Saturday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures somewhat cooler Saturday, somewhat hotter again Sunday and Monday.

Joel Burgio

(BAS)

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