DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 250. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 8 lower. Energies are weaker with crude down $2.70. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold flat.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with quiet trade ongoing at the upper end of the range. Corn basis looks to be flat with better weather improving movement potential ahead of the likely year end slowdown. Ethanol margins remain poor with energies scorning new lows and ethanol futures remaining flat to slightly firmer with corn firmer generally over the past month. Trade will be watching the daily wire for more sales with nothing showing up today. On the March chart the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages at $3.79-$3.80 is our chart support area with resistance at $3.87 3/4 then the four-month high at $3.90 1/2.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with rangebound action ongoing with Brazil weather and export announcements in focus with nothing on the daily wire today. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. NOPA crush was 166.85 million bushels for November, just below the expected pace, but very strong overall. South America is focused on the dry pockets in Brazil along with quicker progress in Argentina overall. Basis will provide signals on the quantity of nearby cash business getting done with flat to slightly firmer trade this last week and some rail bids appearing. The daily wire was quiet to start the week. South American currencies remain weak as well. January support is the 20-day at $8.99, with the 10-day at $9.10 nearby resistance then the recent high at $9.29.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents lower at midday with wheat trade starting to build a range after the recent rally. The dollar has drifted lower to start the week, but remains elevated for more direction expected from the Fed tomorrow. Australian harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat is seeing milder weather, helping late emergence. Russian/Ukrainian issues have been quieter this week. On the March Kansas City chart, support is at the 50-day at $5.18 that we closed above last week and today with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.24 which we are just below and the 100-day the next round up at $5.44.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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