DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska. A trough over northern Canada extending into western Greenland and a ridge to the east of Iceland. This is a cool/cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough along and off the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the Rockies and Plains and a trough along and off the east coast of the U.S. Subtropical high pressure is centered over central Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair agreement days 9-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska. The polar vortex over central Canada. And a ridge over Greenland. This is a cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge over the northwest atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern in the Midwest and Delta under the trough aloft. Precipitation will remain limited in the Plains as the trough will be located just far enough to the east to prevent significant gulf moisture from entering the region. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...5 BELOW ZERO AT ELY NV

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…FRESNO CA 1.21 IN

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair agreement days 9-10. A major blocking ridge is expected to form between Siberia and Alaska with another blocking ridge remaining over Greenland. In between these two ridges a strong polar vortex is expected to dominate Canada causing below to much below normal temperatures in mush of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over the western US and a broad trough over the central and eastern US. Disturbances will move along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. This will be an active precipitation pattern for the Midwest and Delta states. Precipitation will remain limited in the Plains due to the speed of movement of these disturbances. Temperatures will be variable, warmer out ahead of systems, colder behind them.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (SPRING FIELD WORK): Episodes of cool/wet weather will delay spring fieldwork and any early corn planting in the south.

DELTA: Saturated soil along with wet weather next week will delay corn planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): No significant precipitation expected during the next 10 days. Crop ratings are already poor in many areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): Losses to late filling soybeans continue due to drought. Rainfall tonight is expected to be mostly on the light side followed by another significant period of dry weather.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): Favorable soil moisture for developing second crop corn in central Brazil with no end to the rainy season in sight. Wet weather in Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend will disrupt the soybean harvest.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Moderate to heavy rain improves conditions for later planted maize over western areas following recent dry weather. Favorable weather continues for immature maize over southern and eastern areas. Rain also benefits cane along the southeast coast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation. Temperatures variable.

East: Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation in the west. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast...

West: Rain or some mixed precipitation develops on Friday ending on Saturday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry weather Sunday. Light to moderate rain Monday. Dry conditions or just some lingering light rain Tuesday. Dry weather Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a little light precipitation Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

East: Rain or some mixed precipitation tonight and Saturday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry weather Sunday. Rain develops on Monday continuing on Tuesday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry conditions or just some lingering light rain Wednesday. Chance of rain or some mixed precipitation Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, variable Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to above normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures much above normal with highs in the middle 70s to low 80s.

Forecast: Dry conditions or just a little light rain in the north tonight. Mostly dry weather Saturday-Sunday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain on Monday and mixed precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday. Temperatures above to much above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Saturday ending on Sunday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Scattered light showers in Parana on Monday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms in Rio Grande do Sul Tuesday-Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers in Parana. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, variable Monday-Thursday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered light showers with locally heavier Friday-Saturday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Tuesday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Episodes of scattered light showers with locally heavier Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Scattered light showers with locally heavier tonight and early Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered light showers Friday-Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday, variable Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, variable Thursday.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at mike.palmerino@dtn.com

(SK)

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