DTN Closing Grain Comments

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

General Comments:

December corn was 2 cents lower at $3.49 1/2 with March 2 cents lower at $3.62 1/4. November soybeans finished 2 cents lower at $9.55 1/4 with January down 1 3/4 cents at $9.66. December Chicago wheat closed 3 1/4 cents higher at $4.48, December Kansas City gained 2 1/2 cents to $4.41 3/4, and December Minneapolis added 3/4 cent to close at $6.12 1/4. The U.S. dollar index was 0.06 lower at 93.57 while December 30-year T-bonds lost 3/32 to 152'19. December gold was $1.10 lower at $1,274.70 with December silver $0.009 lower and December copper up $0.0035. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 73 points to 22,631. November crude oil fell $0.18 to $50.40. The November distillates (heating oil) contract was $0.0209 lower, November RBOB gasoline rallied $0.0037, and November natural gas dropped $0.018.

Corn:

Here's what we need to know about corn following Tuesday's less than enthralling day: The December contract posted a 2 3/4-cent trading range, combined, for the overnight and day session. December corn has slowly crept back to trendline support, in a narrowing range, calculated at $3.48 1/4 Tuesday and Wednesday. The December-to-March and March-to-May spreads already cover a bearish level of calculated full commercial carry with the May-to-July nearing that classification as well. Other than that, there isn't much new to say about corn. Traders don't seem overly concerned about the pace of harvest, rains moving through the U.S. Midwest, or anything else for that matter. It's hard to imagine something happening to change the tone for the upcoming overnight or Wednesday sessions.

Soybeans:

For much of the latter-half of Tuesday's session it looked like soybean would close higher after spending most of the morning yo-yoing back and forth across unchanged. Alas, at least for market bulls, buying interest waned in the closing minutes, allowing contracts to finish the session in the red. Additional pressure came from commercial selling, as indicated by slightly stronger carry in the futures spreads at the close. Though the news hasn't been market changing of late, soybeans didn't see the announcement of new export sales early Tuesday morning that have become customary. Given the late pressure from commercial traders, it wouldn't be surprising to see the market start Tuesday's overnight session lower.

Wheat:

Corn couldn't go up even if a stick of dynamite went off underneath it. Soybeans preferred to bounce back and forth throughout Tuesday's session, finishing the day below unchanged. Yet wheat refused to back down on potential spillover pressure from the rest of the complex. The seeds for this rebellion were sowed late Monday when winter wheat contracts held together relatively well as spring wheat finally uncovered buying interest near technical support. Tuesday's session saw increased commercial activity in Chicago with the carry in the December-to-May forward curve, or in other words the 2017-18 marketing year contracts, weaken. Kansas City spreads were flat at Tuesday's close. Minnesota spring wheat was able to close on the plus-side of unchanged, but only by fractions. The spring wheat market still has some work to do to turn the downtrend on its weekly chart.

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow Darin Newsom on Twitter @DarinNewsom

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