Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Slow Midwest crop development, and concern over potential damage from Hurricane Irma, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

MIDWEST STAYS DRY AND COOL

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly below-normal temperatures in the Midwest, along with limited rain, through the end of the week. An absence of heat stress is favorable for crops; however, recent-dry areas of the region will receive no benefit for late-season soybean moisture. In addition, a lack of growing degree day accumulation will continue to put crops in a position of needing later occurrence of first frost for full development.

POTENTIAL HURRICANE IRMA DAMAGE

Category 5 Hurricane Irma is in the western Atlantic, moving toward the Leeward Islands. Current indications suggest a track over the northeast Caribbean islands, very near the north coast of Dominican Republic and Haiti, through the islands of the southeast Bahamas and very near or over the north coast of Cuba later this week. The hurricane is expected to bring damaging rain and wind to the southeastern U.S. during the next week to 10 days.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

Southern Plains soil moisture is generally favorable ahead of winter wheat planting.

HEAVY DELTA RAIN

Drier conditions are in store for the Delta this week. This should help crops recover from prior rains associated with first the wet late summer period and then tropical depression Harvey. Although current thinking keeps Irma's rain east of the area, it will still bear watching.

COOL IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Generally, conditions for filling and maturing corn and soybeans are in effect over the northern Plains. There is no damaging cold weather expected during the next 10 days.

MIXED PRAIRIES TEMPERATURES

The Canadian Prairies have mostly favorable conditions for wheat and canola harvest. Late-filling canola will benefit from continued warm weather through the weekend. Colder conditions early next week may bring readings down to frost levels, possibly even a light freeze in some areas; however, this should be followed by a warmer trend at the end of the week.

WEEKEND CHINA SHOWERS

Crop areas of northeastern China picked up some needed rains during the weekend period while the balance of the region was drier. Warm weather and this added rainfall will favor filling crops. Periodic showers and no significant cold weather will favor filling crops this week.

LATE INDIA MONSOON RAIN

In South Asia, a late-season to the India monsoon has brought significant rains to key growing areas of Pakistan and northwest India during the past week. Heavy rains hit Sind province in southeast Pakistan. Moderate to heavy rains have also hit Punjab Pakistan and northwest growing areas of India. Rain in these areas will help improve irrigation and soil moisture for summer crops and irrigation for winter crops. This is highly favorable except in areas of local flooding. Rains also returned to southernmost crop areas of India during the weekend.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

Dryness is of increasing concern for wheat grown in eastern Australia, notably northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. However, the forecast brings continued dry conditions this week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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