DTN Early Word Grains
Thinking Things Through Thursday
July corn was 2 cents lower, July soybeans were 3 cents lower, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 5 cents lower.
CME Globex Recap:Thursday morning finds markets across the board reacting, in a way, to Wednesday's results. For wheat that means renewed pressure following Day 2 of the Kansas Wheat Tour, while DJIA futures are rallying after the Federal Reserve did what was expected and left interest rates unchanged. Most everything else, including the bulk of commodities and the U.S. dollar, were showing losses.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 8.01 points higher at 20,957.90. The NASDAQ Composite lost 22.82 points (0.4%) to 6,072.55 and the S&P 500 dipped 3.04 points (0.1%) to 2,388.13 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 57 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei still closed, Hong Kong's Hang Seng off 12.25 points, and China's Shanghai Composite down 7.98 points (0.3%). European markets were trading higher Thursday with London's FTSE 100 up 25.35 points (0.4%), Germany's DAX gaining 95.33 points (0.8%), and France's CAC 40 adding 44.53 points (0.8%). The euro was 0.0052 higher at 1.0938 while the U.S. dollar index fell 0.30 to 99.08. June 30-year T-Bonds were 21/32 lower at 152'05 while June gold lost $13.00 to $1,235.50. Crude oil was $0.43 lower at $47.39 while Brent crude dropped $0.46 to $50.33. China's Dalian soybean futures were lower while Malaysian palm oil futures were higher overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Total marketing year export shipments of corn are expected to still be bullish. | 1) | Weekly export shipments of corn could actually look a bit bearish Thursday morning. |
| 2) | Weekly export shipments of soybeans are expected to show some contra-seasonal strength. | 2) | As traders turn their attention to weekend weather forecasts, selling interest could grow stronger in new-crop soybeans. |
| 3) | Weekly export shipments are expected to be bullish for all wheat. | 3) | Yield estimates from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council Tour continue to come in larger than expected. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN It should surprise no one that corn contracts drifted lower during another quiet overnight session. Both old-crop July and new-crop December have spent the week consolidating within Monday's trading range, a move that is fairly typical for this time of year with the bulk of trade occurring on Monday and Friday. Old-crop corn traders will take a look at Thursday morning's weekly export shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, April 27) with weekly shipments expected to show a continued contra-seasonal slowdown while total shipments run ahead of USDA's projected pace. New-crop corn traders will grow a little more interested in weekend weather forecasts, though keeping their powder dry for Friday. Delivery of another 544 contracts was reported against the May issue, putting the total at 4,180 contracts.
SOYBEANS Soybean contracts were showing small losses overnight, but in the grand scheme of things, it shouldn't matter all that much. It would not be surprising to see the overnight session finish with contracts on the plus-side of unchanged following the release of weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week end Thursday, April 27). If Monday's inspections are a good indicator, and they usually are, soybeans could see stronger than normal shipments for this part of the marketing year. New-crop November could be sluggish with traders gearing up for a more active session Friday. Delivery of another 49 contracts was reported against the May issue, putting the total at 3,132 contracts.
WHEAT As reported by DTN's Pam Smith, Day 2 of the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour concluded with an average of 46.9 bpa, compared to 49.3 bpa last year. This puts the 2-day estimated average at 44.9 bpa. As with Tuesday morning, futures markets seemed to view this as better than expected with selling seen across the board in both Kansas City and Chicago. Technically, uptrends on daily charts for new-crop July contracts of both are growing a little long in the tooth as they test resistance levels. Fundamentally, traders are expecting another solid round of weekly export shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, April 27), though some consideration will be paid to the unshipped bushels as the marketing year nears its end. There were no new deliveries reported against the May Chicago issue, leaving its total at 1,288 contracts. Delivery of another 150 contracts was reported against the May Kansas City issue putting its total at 2,110 contracts.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.34 | $0.02 | -$0.40 | Jul | -$0.003 |
| Soybeans: | $9.01 | $0.07 | -$0.74 | Jul | $0.006 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.10 | $0.01 | -$0.44 | Jul | $0.007 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.76 | -$0.03 | -$0.88 | Jul | $0.018 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.18 | $0.04 | -$0.43 | Jul | -$0.001 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
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