Market Impact Weather

Beneficial Brazil Trend

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Scattered rains favoring harvest in Brazil through the rest of the week, and exhaustive dryness in the Southern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

LIGHT MIDWEST PRECIPITATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for light rain and snow in the eastern Midwest during the balance of this week. This will bring some marginal improvement to soil moisture in recently-dry areas of the region; however, more will be needed. The weather will trend cooler to colder, slowing down recent warming of soils. A round of snow is also possible in the northern portion of the region.

HARSH SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

Soil moisture continues to decline in the Southern Plains. Strong to very strong winds and very low dew points during the past two days have extracted moisture at a rapid pace. Wheat crop conditions were nearly unchanged from a month ago in the latest report, but indications are that ratings will trend lower. Crop ratings are well-below their levels of a year ago. Dry and windy conditions have already produced significant wildfire damage, and more wildfire danger is indicated through the rest of the week.

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COLD AND SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a turn to much lower temperatures and some snow at the end of this week should increase stress to livestock and should affect travel and transport.

SCATTERED CENTRAL BRAZIL SHOWERS

Central Brazil continues with a pattern of light, scattered rain showers through the rest of the week. This will favor soybean harvest progress along with easing transportation disruption, and allow for continued planting progress of the winter corn (safrinha) crop. Southern Brazil will have locally heavy rainfall with some early harvest delays. However, the rain will favor later-planted crops.

FAVORABLE ARGENTINA PATTERN

Central Argentina continues with generally favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans. Some recent improvement in rainfall is also noted in double-crop soybean areas in southern Argentina.

MILD AGAIN FOR RUSSIA

Russia and Ukraine crop areas remain on track for mild weather through the next week. Recent temperatures have been running from six to 10 degrees Celsius (11 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. Winter grain crops are in favorable condition. However, the warm trend will lead to further early development of winter wheat, and place the crop in a vulnerable position for damage in the event of a harsh cold snap. Wheat is from two to four weeks earlier than normal in breaking dormancy.

MIXED EUROPE CONDITIONS

Western Europe has seen moderate to locally heavy rainfall throughout major crop areas during the past week. This is favorable for winter grains. Crop development likely remains well-ahead of normal for the date in France. Meanwhile, southeastern Europe has a very warm pattern with winter grains breaking dormancy almost four weeks earlier than normal. Soil moisture is declining as crops move into an active-growth phase.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES)

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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