Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Favorable conditions for harvest in Brazil through the rest of the week, and continued dominant dryness in the Southern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST PRECIPITATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to locally heavy rain Tuesday in the eastern and southeastern Midwest, from the Missouri Bootheel and lower Ohio Valley, northeast to the eastern Great Lakes. Other sectors of the region will be dry or will receive only light precipitation. Rain will boost soil moisture for crops, along with disrupting spring fieldwork in the affected areas. However, there is little moisture benefit indicated for recent dry areas of the western Midwest, notably in Missouri, along with the south-central region in central Illinois.

CONTINUED SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

Dry conditions continue to highlight the Southern Plains' 10-day forecast. Dryness is causing more concern due to winter wheat entering its post-dormancy phase almost a month ahead of normal. Crop ratings are running 15 percentage points below last year. In addition, wheat in Kansas rated Poor to Very Poor, at 22% this year compared to 7% in 2016, is three times the rating of last year. Temperatures will be well-above normal also, adding to the soil moisture loss issues.

BITTER COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, bitter-cold weather, along with strong winds and blowing snow, may mean blizzard conditions at times for parts of northern North Dakota.

FLOOD CONCERNS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Eastern Canadian Prairies areas saw rain changing to freezing rain and then snow during the past 24 hours along with very strong winds and blizzard conditions. This likely means travel delays; however, a more pressing issue is an increase in spring flooding risk due to additional snow cover. Precipitation totals are estimated at 1/2 to 1 inch (13 to 25 millimeters) during the past 24 hours.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST PATTERN

Across Brazil, light showers continue in the forecast for central and northern areas this week. This will favor soybean harvest progress along with easing transportation disruption, and allow for continued planting progress of the winter corn (safrinha) crop. Southern Brazil will have locally heavy rainfall with some harvest delays; however, this sector of Brazil has had favorable harvest conditions recently. Total Brazil soybean harvest progress is reportedly at 47%, six percentage points ahead of 2016, and 13 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA TREND

Central Argentina has generally favorable conditions for developing and filling corn and soybeans. Some recent improvement in rainfall is also noted in double-crop soybean areas in southern Argentina.

WARM RUSSIA PATTERN

In Russia and Ukraine, forecasts for the next 10 days continue to feature above- to much-above-normal temperatures. This will lead to further early development of winter wheat, and place the crop in a vulnerable position for damage in the event of a harsh cold snap.

GENEROUS EUROPE RAINFALL

Western Europe has seen moderate to locally heavy rainfall throughout major crop areas during the past week. This has helped ease concerns that had been building following an otherwise drier winter period. Crop development likely remains well-ahead of normal for the date in France.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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