Market Impact Weather

Favorable Brazil Trend

Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

OMAHA (DTN) -- Favorable conditions for Brazil soybean harvest, and a round of heat in Argentina's forecast this week, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for several rounds of showers and snow in the Midwest this week. The precipitation will generally be favorable for recharging soil moisture. The southern portion of the region will receive the biggest benefit after dryness from last fall through the winter.

PROMISING SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, mostly favorable soil moisture for the wheat crop when it breaks dormancy in the spring should be available due to heavy rains in early January and additional rain during the winter favoring southern areas.

STORMY NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

Snow, ice and rain are in store for the Northern Plains during this week, but this is not expected to be a major concern. Rain may change briefly to heavy snow Thursday night or Friday. Local delays to transport may occur.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL TREND

Conditions are favorable for maturing and harvesting soybeans in central Brazil and for filling soybeans in southern Brazil. Favorable conditions are also in place for planting and developing second crop corn in west-central Brazil.

HEAT FOR ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, thunderstorms late last week may have caused local flooding to occur but nothing widespread. Adequate to surplus soil moisture in the key growing areas at this time. High temperatures this week especially in southern areas may increase stress, somewhat, to developing crops, especially in La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires.

FAVORABLE EUROPE CONDITIONS

Mostly favorable conditions are in effect for winter grains and oilseeds from England and France to Germany. Early dryness is of some concern. Early winter cold may mean above-average winterkill for crops in Eastern Europe but this will not likely be known until spring.

BENIGN RUSSIA TREND

Wheat in Russia and Ukraine has no significant cold weather threats at this time. Prior cold weather occurred during periods when snow cover should have protected the crop from damage.

HOTTER AND DRIER IN INDIA

India and Pakistan have a large high pressure area setting up during this week. This pattern needs to be watched for the potential of bringing hotter and drier conditions to south and east wheat areas, which would increase the risk to any late-developing crops.

OPPRESSIVE AUSTRALIA HEAT

In Australia, episodes of extreme heat and dryness are reported to have increased the risk to non-irrigated sorghum in New South Wales and southern Queensland. There has also been some increase in stress to irrigated cotton due to episodes of extreme heat and dryness during the mid-summer period. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers developed during the four-day weekend period, improving conditions for developing sorghum and cotton.

MILD PATTERN IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa crops will continue to benefit from periodic scattered thunderstorms and no lasting hot weather.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES)