Washington Insider--Thursday

By DTN's Washington Insider

Here's a quick monitor of Washington farm and trade policy issues from DTN's well-placed observer.

Farm-State House Members Seek to Address Labor Shortages

More than 50 House Republicans and a few Democrats are opposing measures aimed at expanding immigration enforcement unless farm labor shortages are also addressed. Enforcement measures being considered by the House Judiciary Committee should be accompanied by bills that address national farm labor shortages, the members say in a letter to House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va.

"While we agree with the need to stem the flow of illegal immigration and are supportive of measures like E-Verify, implementing mandatory E-Verify without also enacting strong reforms ensuring our farmers have access to a legal, reliable and stable workforce will cause serious problems for our domestic agricultural industry and our nation's economy," the letter says. The members also point out that the H-2A program currently used to hire foreign-born agriculture employees on a temporary basis is unworkable and currently supplies only about 10 percent of the workforce.

A Senate immigration reform plan that passed in June 2013 (but was never taken up by the House) would have reworked the H-2A program, as well as given undocumented workers an incentivized path to adjusting their legal status. Farm workers would have been able to apply for a "blue card," or temporary residency, and eventually permanent residency, if they continued to work in agriculture.

Congress eventually will get around to immigration reform, but cobbling together a bill upon which a majority can agree remains an elusive goal. Agriculture, with no shortage of advocates, will keep this issue at the forefront of any discussions involving immigration reform.

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Europe's Dairy Farmers Nervous as Production Quotas End

After more than 30 years, the European Union this week ended the milk production quotas that were introduced in response to supplies that annually were well above consumer demand, an imbalance that resulted in high annual costs for the trade bloc. Europe's dairy farmers are understandably anxious about what comes next, with many predicting that it won't take long for surpluses to build again and for producer prices to tumble.

In advance of dropping its dairy quotas, the European Commission estimated that the growth in EU milk production would be in the 2-to-3 percent range, but some private industry analysts are saying that 4-to-5 percent is more realistic. The higher range is based on good weather and an anticipated growing world demand for dairy products, they add.

Many analysts expect global demand for a wide range of dairy products will increase faster than will supplies from the current big exporting nations of New Zealand, Australia, the United States and the EU. It is clear that expanding populations, improving economic circumstances and increasing urbanization centered largely in developing nations will change supply-demand patterns and the product mix for agricultural producers around the world, and not just for dairy producers. These changes will not always go smoothly or benefit all equally.

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Washington Insider: Climate Change and Political Differences

Climate change and the political storms that surround this issue are increasingly in the spotlight these days. For example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency recently required states to submit climate risk mitigation plans beginning next year that consider the effects of long-term changes in weather patterns. If they don't, the feds say, they will lose U.S. funds to help them prepare for disasters.

This is seen as hard news for the governors who question the science of climate change, and Louisiana's Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal weighed in quickly. "This preparation saves lives . . . [and] the White House should not use it for political leverage to force acquiescence to their left-wing ideology," he said.

California Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown took the other side. He interrupted a drought discussion by calling U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, "absolutely unfit" to run for president because of his dismissive stance on climate change. Cruz, in turn, charged Brown with ignoring data he claims show little or no warming over the last 17 years. However climate scientists say Cruz's statistics are cherry-picked and don't represent long-term trends, according to Politifact and the Washington Post.

Press reports indicate that some states are beginning to address effects of a rise in sea level, in spite of the politics involved. In Florida, for example, even though the governor is said to have clamped down on the words used to describe what they are doing, state environmental staffers say that climate change is on their minds. Emergency management division spokesman, Aaron Gallaher, told the press, "If FEMA requires more climate change analysis in the next plan due in 2018, Florida will comply."

The Florida Center for Investigative Reporting notes that state agencies are studying how to accommodate sea-level rise in future road plans, modeling sea-level rise projections, managing damage to the coasts and monitoring saltwater incursions into freshwater aquifers.

Other states like Vermont who were hard hit by flooding rains from Hurricane Irene in 2011 are weighing a resolution to recognize "that climate change is real, that human activities make a substantive contribution to climate change, and that it is imperative the state take steps now to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels."

So, it will be important to note what the state reports now being aggregated indicate about state and local planning.

On the international scene, the president has submitted an outline of his plan to curb carbon dioxide emissions, as have other governments including the European Union, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland and Russia. The administration's formal plan would cut greenhouse gases nearly 30 percent by 2025 and would ratchet up pressure on other countries — including Australia, Canada and India — that haven't yet spelled out concrete plans.

The United States, the second-biggest carbon emitter after China, has taken a leading role in recent months in negotiations with nearly 200 nations to strike an agreement through the United Nations to rein in gases blamed for global warming. And Republicans are using these efforts to amplify criticism of the president's federal emissions rules. For example, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., took the unusual step of warning other countries that Congress could stand in the way of promises the White House makes in the climate negotiations.

The administration's announcement is an effort to keep the climate talks on track as countries work toward a deal in Paris in December. The cuts that the White House is offering rely on previously announced rules for power-plant emissions, vehicle efficiency and building standards. The power-plant rules are expected to be completed this summer and to target cuts from that sector by 30 percent between 2005 and 2030. The administration also is planning new regulations for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by next March and has programs to boost energy conservation in buildings and curb other gases.

The United States is backing a delicate balance concerning the legal framework of the Paris agreement; the deal is meant to have legal force in some areas but wouldn't be a formal treaty that would need support in the U.S. Senate, according to international experts. The goal of the current round of negotiations is to prevent global average temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

Other leading economies are expected to submit their national contributions to the cuts in the first half of this year. Officials plan to meet for rounds of negotiations before the high-level gathering in Paris.

So, the problem of what to do in response to catastrophic changes in climate that can threaten much of the nation remains almost completely intractable. It was expected earlier that it would take an enormous event to unify policymakers in efforts to agree on solutions, but even severe recent events appear to have fallen short of the kindling temperature needed to ignite a productive discussion.

Agriculture is on the front line in this fight, and faces changes no matter what — as do most industries, and as the current debates are pointing out in increasing detail. Certainly, this is a fight that involves all sectors and should be watched carefully as it evolves, Washington Insider believes.

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