DTN Oil Update
Oil Up on Market Risks Despite US Congressional Shifts
SECAUCUS, N.J. (DTN) -- Crude futures rebounded Thursday after falling its most in seven months in the prior session as energy traders responded to the likelihood of oil supplies remaining vulnerable despite potential changes to the trajectory of the Iran war from this week's U.S. midterm elections.
By 9:15 a.m. EST, NYMEX WTI crude for December delivery rose $1.27, or 1.53%, to $89.39 bbl. WTI hit a four-week low of $87.13 on Wednesday, Nov. 4, falling 8% for its largest one-day decline since April.
ICE Brent for January delivery climbed $2.38, or 2.63%, to $97 bbl, after also losing around 8% in the prior session.
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Downstream, ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) for December delivery rebounded $0.0880, or 2.13%, to $4.2935 gallon.
RBOB for December delivery advanced by $0.0351, or 1.33%, to $2.7637 gallon.
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.065 points to 101.490 against a basket of foreign currencies.
Wednesday's selloff across energy futures came as control of Congress flipped to Democrats in Tuesday's, Nov. 3, midterm elections. When Democratic lawmakers take charge in January, they plan to invoke the War Powers Resolution to constrain U.S. President Donald Trump's war against Iran.
Notwithstanding the Democrats' plans, some market analysis suggested that upside risks to crude prices had barely changed.
Eurasia Group raised the likelihood of a prolonged Iran war to 30% from 15%, citing Tehran's firm negotiating stance and Washington's reluctance to accept terms perceived as a defeat. In such circumstances, any escalation in hostilities could drive Brent back towards the $110-$125 bbl range, it said.
Citigroup cautioned that the White House may lean heavily on executive foreign policy powers, increasing the potential for renewed escalation with Iran.
JPMorgan reported that the uptick in Gulf oil shipments over the past two months had pushed global supply back into a surplus of 1.1 million bpd in September and 1.4 million bpd in October.
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