DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- The retail fertilizer market appears to be stuck on replay, as average prices for most fertilizers moved higher again the last week of January 2018, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

All but one of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier. One difference from previous weeks was that anhydrous was not significantly higher (5% or more) as it has been for the last eight consecutive weeks.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were slightly higher than a month ago. DAP had an average price of $458 per ton, MAP $492/ton, urea $355/ton, 10-34-0 $415/ton, anhydrous $491/ton, UAN28 $227/ton and UAN32 $261/ton.

One fertilizer was actually slightly lower for the second week in a row compared to the previous month. Potash had an average price of $344 per ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.41/lb.N and UAN32 $0.41/lb.N.

With higher retail fertilizer prices in the last few months, DTN has been asking farmers if this will alter how they apply fertilizer in the 2018 growing season. Will they apply less fertilizer, change to different forms of fertilizer, or maybe even change crops to limit the need for nutrients?

Tim Malterer has adjusted his fertility plan in recent years. The Janesville, Minnesota, farmer/agronomist has gone to a plan of applying an additional percentage of fertilizer above the amount needed to reach a certain yield goal in an attempt to slowly build fertility.

"On some fields, I have good yield history, and those I use zone to help manage where I put fertilizer," Malterer told DTN. "On others, I don't (have a good yield history), so I'm taking the average and applying above that level."

In addition, he also has some fields to which he can apply hog manure. He will apply in a way to manage the nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potash (K) in the manure, as he can't change the manure analysis.

Like many farmers last fall, Malterer was able to apply some fertilizer after harvest before retail prices started to rise. He already locked in the fertilizer he will apply in the spring in December and January.

"I have also been looking closer at the micros and additives and squeezing the data we get off our farm to make sure that what I'm applying is giving me a positive return on investment (ROI)," Malterer said.

All but three fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices pushing higher in recent months. Urea is 1% higher, anhydrous is now 2% more expensive, potash is 5% higher, DAP is 7% more expensive and MAP is 10% higher than last year.

Three fertilizers are still lower in price compared to a year prior. UAN32 is 3% lower while UAN28 is 4% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 5% lower looking back a year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 30-Feb 3 2017	430	448	329	353
Feb 27-Mar 03 2017	436	458	335	361
Mar 27-31 2017	438	465	338	356
Apr 24-28 2017	437	466	338	352
May 22-26 2017	436	471	340	343
Jun 19-23 2017	436	470	340	333
Jul 17-21 2017	435	464	339	309
Aug 14-18 2017	434	460	338	305
Sep 11-15 2017	431	456	336	310
Oct 9-13 2017	432	453	347	325
Nov 6-10 2017	434	459	341	338
Dec 4-8 2017	438	471	343	344
Jan 1-5 2018	452	490	345	350
Jan 29-Feb 2 2018	458	492	344	355
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 30-Feb 3 2017	439	482	236	270
Feb 27-Mar 03 2017	440	502	246	279
Mar 27-31 2017	441	508	248	279
Apr 24-28 2017	437	509	247	280
May 22-26 2017	436	503	249	280
Jun 19-23 2017	435	497	243	273
Jul 17-21 2017	425	425	229	265
Aug 14-18 2017	419	419	216	251
Sep 11-15 2017	416	412	210	248
Oct 9-13 2017	413	397	206	253
Nov 6-10 2017	403	409	216	272
Dec 4-8 2017	404	424	215	251
Jan 1-5 2018	409	474	219	256
Jan 29-Feb 2 2018	415	491	227	261

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/CZ)

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