DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge in the Central and East. The trough will finally move eastward this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast. At the same time, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will be replaced by a transient ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, but disagree on the strength of a system moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move through the U.S. early-to-mid next week with some showers likely. Temperatures should fall behind that front while western areas see temperatures rise. Eventually those warmer temperatures will spread eastward later next week and weekend. Yet another system may move into the West next weekend, then through the U.S. the following week as the relatively active pattern continues.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...96 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...17 AT 11 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...POCATELLO, ID 0.53 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge in the Central and East. The trough will finally move eastward this weekend, pushing the ridge off the East Coast. At the same time, another trough will move into the West, sliding eastward next week. That will be replaced by a transient ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, but disagree on the strength of a system moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move through the U.S. early-to-mid next week with some showers likely. Temperatures should fall behind that front while western areas see temperatures rise. Eventually those warmer temperatures will spread eastward later next week and weekend. Yet another system may move into the West next weekend, then through the U.S. the following week as the relatively active pattern continues.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the region through Friday as a system moves through the region. Another system is likely to move through Sunday and Monday with some showers as well.

Temperatures will be quite variable as the systems move through. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest, and progress should be slower.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving through the Northern Plains will push a cold front through the region through Saturday with variable showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front in the region made for some showers on Wednesday. Another system will move north into Canada on Thursday, pushing the front eastward this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms to develop across the east. Recent rainfall may have been stalling harvest in the northwest, but most areas have had good weather to continue work this week. Showers this weekend may push plans back a bit for some though.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the region and water levels on the Lower Mississippi River are declining again. Drier conditions this week will not be helpful. Some showers moving through on Saturday may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers are now scattered in central Brazil as the wet season rainfall continues. That may take some time to fill in areas that were very dry over the last three weeks, but is overall favorable for soybean planting and establishment. A front will move through southern areas through Saturday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall that continues to be favorable for that region. The front will move into central Brazil this weekend and may have a tendency to move too far north next week, which could leave some central areas drier for several days.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though it has been a little drier across the south and central, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. A front is bringing showers to northern areas for Thursday and Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable. Fronts and systems do seem to be heading toward a downtrend in frequency, which may need to be monitored over the next few weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue over eastern Europe for the next few days. Drier conditions in the northwest have been a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, but a system is forecast to move through this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well as a more stormy weather pattern takes hold.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Only isolated showers have been occurring this week and drought is still a major problem for the region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment. Only limited showers are forecast for next week as well.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Some areas still have good soil moisture though. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country for the next week, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks. Although this had been favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment, rainfall has been a little too high in some areas and may be causing some flooding. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue into Friday before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs. The colder weather may impact harvest across the northeast as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers north through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday, north Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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