DTN Market Impact Weather

Hot 10-Day Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A hot and dry scenario for the central U.S., and stressful heat to continue over the Southern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for heat and dryness to continue bringing concern about crop prospects to the southwestern Midwest, especially with recent extreme heat in the area. There is a chance that thunderstorms Friday night may hit a portion of this area, helping to ease dryness concerns. Otherwise, it's a more favorable period for development of crops during the next five to seven days as the recent heat subsides.

STRESSFUL UPPER-AIR FORECAST

The U.S. and European forecast models Thursday both suggest that a ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over the south-central U.S. will strengthen during the 10-day timeframe ending June 10. It is likely strong enough later this period to return temperatures to well-above-normal values in the Central and Southern Plains, Delta, and the southwestern Midwest. As the ridge strengthens, a dry pattern also develops. The best chance for rain will be at the edge of the hot upper ridge, from the Northern Plains through the eastern Midwest.

SCATTERED SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Southern Plains, thunderstorms that occurred overnight will favor development of crops in parts of south Kansas, north and east Oklahoma. Hot and dry weather continues to affect crops further south and west from there. The return of upper-level high pressure to this region during the six- to 10-day period will bear watching as heat and dry weather may redevelop.

STIFLING WEST TEXAS HEAT

There is no significant rain expected in the west Texas cotton region during the next 10 days. However, a few showers may occur at times and isolated activity may be a little heavier. Conditions will be frequently hot as the mean ridge position remains in the region.

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SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains region continues to have mostly favorable crop conditions. Episodes of scattered showers to widely scattered showers help to ease dryness concerns. This region has the highest likelihood for rain during the next 10 days, on the northern edge of hot upper-air high pressure from the southwestern U.S.

DELTA HEAT

In the Delta, warm to hot weather and little significant rainfall are forecast during the next 10 days, especially south of Memphis, Tennessee. Some increase in concern for crops in this region is possible.

MIXED PRAIRIES RAINFALL

In the Canadian Prairies, conditions are mainly favorable for planting. Recent showers have helped improve topsoil moisture enough for germination and early development. Forecasted showers in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will continue to replenish top soil moisture. Central and western areas could use more rain, and will probably only see light scattered showers during the next seven days, although with cooler weather.

WEEKEND NORTHEAST CHINA RAIN

Northeast China corn and soybean areas will see moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Showers will improve conditions for planting and early development. Only light rain or showers in key northern growing areas. Hot weather returns to the region at the end of this week and will last a few days, drying out soils. Cooler weather and a few showers re-develop after that, with rainfall expected to be light.

DRY ACROSS AUSTRALIA

Australia's major wheat areas have a dry forecast throughout -- from west to east. The dry trend is a concern; this early season is being called the driest in 10 years.

VARIABLE INDIA MONSOON PROGRESS

The leading edge of the India monsoon surged northward into extreme southwest India during this week, several days ahead of normal. However, in the southeast the progress remains at least several days behind normal. Overall, it appears the monsoon activity has weakened during the past couple of days from where it was earlier this week. This may slow the northward progress for a time.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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