DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with troughs in the Southwest, Canadian Prairies, and along the West Coast. The Prairies and Southwest troughs will move eastward in tandem over the next couple of days, but the ridge will remain. The West Coast trough will move into the Southwest to replace it and then move eastward early next week. Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and push through the country around Thanksgiving, deepening as it does so.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another big trough is forecast to move into the West next weekend as our pattern going into early December turns generally colder and more volatile.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar at the moment, but have been having trouble staying consistent for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is colder.

A system should be moving northeast through the Midwest early next week, ahead of a very strong cold front that should bring through a burst of arctic air for the second half of the week. Models are still working out the details and likely aren't cold enough during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Additional bursts of arctic cold are forecast to move through in early December and could come with significant winter storms.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...93 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX, MCALLEN, TX, AND EDINBURG, TX

LOW WED...1 AT SARANAC LAKE, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with troughs in the Southwest, Canadian Prairies, and along the West Coast. The Prairies and Southwest troughs will move eastward in tandem over the next couple of days, but the ridge will remain. The West Coast trough will move into the Southwest to replace it and then move eastward early next week. Another trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest this weekend and push through the country around Thanksgiving, deepening as it does so. Another big trough is forecast to move into the West over the weekend as our pattern going into early December turns generally colder and more volatile.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar at the moment, but have been having trouble staying consistent for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is colder.

A system should be moving northeast through the Midwest early next week, ahead of a very strong cold front that should bring through a burst of arctic air for the second half of the week. Models are still working out the details and likely aren't cold enough during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Additional bursts of arctic cold are forecast to move through in early December and could come with significant winter storms.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers are moved through on Wednesday with a system passing through Canada. Drier conditions are forecast until a significant cold front moves through early next week. Along with chances for rain changing to snow, temperatures are forecast to take a massive dive behind that front and a much colder pattern is forecast to continue into December. That will shut down any winter wheat and start to freeze soils a bit early this year. Any areas with fieldwork to do have limited time in which to do so.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A strong system is moving through the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Some areas of heavy rain should be favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought. Some flooding will be possible though, especially across Texas. Though temperatures are will be quite warm into next week, a big blast of arctic air is forecast to move through behind next week's system, though to what degree is still being worked out by models. Indications are that additional bursts of cold are likely for December that may come with some significant precipitation that includes snow, meaning that the window for getting fieldwork done is shutting down, particularly across the north.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation, though mostly across the south. Another system is forecast for early next week that could bring through some significant precipitation as well. That could improve soil moisture and reduce some of the drought in the region. However, very cold air is forecast to push through behind it for Thanksgiving in the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The colder pattern will shut down opportunities for field work a little early.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. Though we should see a system moving through Thursday and Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and another is forecast to do so early next week, that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region.

They will provide at least temporary boosts, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has stalled in the north. Showers will slowly build there back to the south through central Brazil through this weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains high for early this growing season. However, an overall drier pattern is starting to set up for the country. Fronts are still forecast to move through, and one will do so Thursday into Friday, but they are forecast to produce only patchy showers. It may take some time and be slow to occur, but soil moisture may slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across much of the continent going into next week. Temperatures are colder now though and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy through this weekend from Hungary into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A couple of systems are moving through this week, but have been producing limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. The same goes for next week as well. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers have been favoring western areas this week while eastern areas are only getting some isolated showers this weekend. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops. Dry conditions are largely forecast through the end of November, helpful across the north but detrimental for the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Lake-effect snow Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, north Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers north. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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