Ag Weather Forum

The heartland of China's grain production, the North China Plain, was inundated with record rain and flooding during October. Rainfall totals of 141.3 millimeters (mm) or 5.56 inches were reported. The heavy rain covered the entire region, with the provinces of Shandong and Henan taking in the heaviest amounts.

This may not sound like extremely heavy rain, but the normal rainfall in this region during October is only 0.65 inches. That means that 5.56 inches amounts to 750% above normal. The record rainfall fell on a region in China which accounts for about 60% of the country's wheat production and almost one-third of its corn output. That makes the October deluge significant both in terms of timing and placement.

The heavy rain brought extensive delays to winter wheat seeding and to corn harvest. Published reports note that winter wheat seeding was over 25% complete as of Oct. 30. That rate is well behind average; USDA Foreign Ag Service references point to September and October as the average winter wheat seeding period (similar to the winter wheat seeding time frame in the U.S. and Canada).

Market reaction to this news has been lukewarm. However, wheat prices rallied to begin the last week of October, which could have been in part related to the problems in China caused by the heavy rain. "The delayed planting of the winter wheat was mentioned as part of the reason for the rally in wheat ... so that certainly adds credibility," said DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst Mitch Miller. "With wheat being so oversold ... this fundamental development could have a major impact going forward. China has not been a major wheat importer so a surprise there could have a significant market impact."

The record North China Plain rainfall also illustrates the frequency of heavy precipitation occurrences across the world related to ongoing higher temperatures. According to the latest world climate assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): "The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have likely increased at the global scale over a majority of land regions with good observational coverage. Heavy precipitation has likely increased on the continental scale over three continents: North America, Europe, and Asia."

The North China Plain weather pattern cleared during the last half of October. At that time, the Chinese government initiated a 60-day emergency campaign to help get the wheat seeded and fall harvest done. Help to farmers included government financing; extra equipment and operation crews; field draining to hasten the pace of drying; and bringing in grain dryers and crews to limit the spoilage of harvested grain. This mobilization is another example of how weather extremes lead to greater expense in time, equipment and labor to manage their impact.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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