Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

For the past few weeks now, Canadian wildfire smoke has been drifting its way south from time to time, creating hazy skies and orange-tinted sunrises and sunsets. While some of the smoke has been able to remain in the upper-air layer of the atmosphere, some weather features have caused it to mix to the surface. Once it mixes to the surface, this can create poor air quality and prompt air quality alerts. Rainfall has been hit or miss across the Canadian Prairies since last week, and a similar pattern may be in store for next week as well. The risks for wildfires are currently highest across the southeast Canadian Prairies; but is there rainfall on the way to reduce these risks?

The Canadian government supports an interactive map from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System that shows where active fires are currently ongoing across the country. Fires that are out of control mostly blanket northeast British Columbia through northern Alberta and down into central Saskatchewan. Some of these fires are over 100,000 hectares (245,000 acres) in size, making them difficult to get under control. If you're interested in checking out the interactive map, head over to: https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/….

More rounds of rainfall are needed to fight these fires. Since Monday, June 9, rainfall across the Canadian Prairies has been heaviest in southeast Alberta. Rainfall just to the east of Calgary has approached 12-22 millimeters (0.5-0.9 inches) since Monday. As you look to the east though, amounts get scarce with only a couple of rainfall reports of 5 millimeters (0.2 inches) in southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. All other rainfall reports in these areas are meager.

Not only is additional rainfall helpful for the wildfires, but the developing canola and wheat could also use the extra moisture as they emerge. Precipitation has largely been below average for much of the Prairies over the past 30 days. Soil moisture is 30% to 50% below average for quite a few areas in the southern half of Saskatchewan. The forecast going into next week and even into the end of June still has some glimmers of hope for areas that need rainfall.

This weekend, a low-pressure system will continue to work from west to east across the Prairies and by Sunday, the European and American GFS models paint a swath of heavier rain across central Alberta and Saskatchewan. Rainfall up there could reach 20 to 40 millimeters (0.75-1.5 inches), but looking farther south, rainfall looks like it could be spottier and lighter. A decent portion of southern Alberta, mainly south of Calgary, could miss out on the rain altogether while rainfall totals in southern Saskatchewan will be closer to 5 to 15 millimeters (0.2-0.6 inches) and less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches) in southern Manitoba.

Next week, an upper-air ridge will get sandwiched in between a trough in eastern Canada and a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually the ridge will break down and allow the trough in the Gulf of Alaska to shift east during the second half of the week. The early-week ridge will keep any showers and thunderstorms on the isolated side but by Wednesday, precipitation will become more scattered and widespread. Model guidance has different ideas on the exact track of the low-pressure system as it moves across the Canadian Prairies from west to east. The European model keeps it farther north while the GFS swings it farther south, which would benefit the drier conditions in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

As firefighters continue to attempt to tame these fires, some areas of smoke may still drift down into the northern U.S. Anytime the upper atmosphere has winds from the northwest over southern Canada and the northern U.S., this can drag the smoke southeast. While the weather pattern into next week offers some chances to build soil moisture and help with controlling wildfires, some of these fires are large enough that it will take weeks or even months to get them under control.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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