Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another spring storm system for the U.S., mixed conditions in South America, and warmth and dryness in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A massive storm system went through the Midwest over the weekend, bringing through widespread rain and thunderstorms, but also widespread severe weather and a blizzard in the far northwest. Another system will move through on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a band of heavy snow on its northern side again. Strong winds could again cause blizzard conditions, but for a larger area. The precipitation is favorable for drought areas, but some areas of heavy rain are soaking soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Additional small systems will move through this weekend into early next week with some additional showers, but likely much lighter.

BAND OF SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A massive system went through the Central and Southern Plains on Friday, bringing extremely strong winds that caused a dust storm and enraged wildfires. Another strong storm will move through Tuesday and Wednesday. This one is more likely to bring some precipitation to the west, but in the form of snow, which could be heavy. Strong winds with the system could lead to blizzard conditions for a time as well. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for late week and weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

SOME PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PLAINS, DROUGHT CONTINUES

A system dropped some heavy snow in the eastern Dakotas with blizzard conditions over the weekend and another skirted across the north with some snow. Southern areas will continue to see snow Tuesday with a system that passes by to the south. A couple of smaller systems will move through later this week and weekend but with more limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through massive precipitation events that are needed.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA AFTER HEAVY RAIN

A couple of rounds of severe weather and heavy rainfall moved through the Delta over the weekend, leading to damage and flooding. Water levels on the Mississippi are forecast to rise again, though flooding is not expected outside of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers to the east. Soils are likely to wet to work for many areas this week. A system will move through with some showers possible on Wednesday, with another couple of small systems this weekend and early next week, keeping soil moisture very high.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A stalled front across south-central Brazil only produced isolated showers over the weekend. That front will get a boost from another moving up from the south this week. While some heavier rain is forecast to fall, models have been over-predicting rainfall recently. Despite this, some needed rain looks to fall in some very dry areas in the east-central safrinha corn areas. West-central areas continue to see beneficial rainfall.

DRIER IN ARGENTINA, FRONT COMING THIS WEEKEND

Some isolated showers moved into central Argentina over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Dry conditions are forecast for most of this week, though a front will move through this weekend into early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Filling corn and soybeans have had some beneficial rainfall recently, but will need more in some areas.

QUIETER IN EUROPE NEXT FEW DAYS

Systems moved through Europe over the last week, bringing needed rainfall across the south and portions of the east. Though Spain continues to see beneficial rainfall, most areas will dry out this week. However, another system moves into the west on Friday and is forecast to send some more energy eastward through the continent over the weekend into next week. Above-normal temperatures should coax more wheat across the north out of dormancy while causing more rapid growth across the south.

STREAKS OF PRECIPITATION NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR BLACK SEA REGION

An active pattern in Europe brought through some streaks of precipitation to the Black Sea region over the weekend, but they were largely light. Southwestern Russia gets some precipitation early this week, but likely not enough for how dry soils continue to be. Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture.

QUIETER IN AUSTRALIA FOR HARVEST

Dry weather over the weekend allowed eastern Australia to recover from Tropical Cyclone Alfred. Cotton and sorghum are maturing and undergoing harvest, hoping for some drier weather across the east. However, winter wheat and canola planting will begin in about a month and will need more precipitation.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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