Ag Weather Forum

Editor's Note:

As of 12:30 p.m. CDT, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of Mississippi and Alabama to a high risk of severe weather for Saturday, indicating the extreme likelihood for a tornado outbreak and other significant severe weather.

**

A multi-day severe weather outbreak is forecast for Friday, March 14 through Sunday, March 16. A massive spring storm system is moving into the Plains on Friday. It is deepening so rapidly, it is becoming known as a "bomb cyclone". Widespread severe weather is forecast from the event east of the Plains, including incredibly strong windstorms in the Midwest on Friday and a tornado outbreak across the Southeast on Saturday.

Moderate risks of severe weather have been posted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) on both days to account for the severe weather risks. A slight risk of severe weather continues across large portions of the East Coast on Sunday. This is the first major severe weather outbreak forecast for 2025.

The low-pressure center is currently in eastern Colorado as of early Friday morning, but will deepen rapidly across Kansas before moving up into the Upper Midwest overnight into early Saturday. The deepening of the low will bring widespread strong winds throughout the Plains. Those across Texas and Oklahoma may see gusts exceeding 80 miles per hour. But the low center and strong winds will also fuel potential for severe weather Friday afternoon through the overnight hours.

Iowa and Missouri look to be on the forefront of this first round of severe weather, which will likely cross the Mississippi River into Illinois and could develop as far south as central Mississippi and Alabama tonight.

This first round may include some tornadoes and large hail, the dynamics certainly support that, especially across the southern end of the risk zone. But the real risk is from widespread wind damage. That burst of winds from the Plains would be easily transferred to the surface and enhanced by thunderstorms moving through these areas. Though gusts over 80 mph will be possible in the Southern Plains, thunderstorms could increase those winds to 100 mph, according to the SPC. That risk is greatest in the bulk of the moderate risk area across southern Iowa, northern and eastern Missouri, and much of Illinois.

The main low-pressure center moves too far away to produce severe weather for the weekend, but a secondary low-pressure center, now moving through California early Friday, will pick up the front left behind by the storm, and increase the severe weather risk for Saturday across the Gulf Coast and Mid-South.

With much better upper-level dynamics and access to Gulf moisture, a tornado outbreak is expected to occur from Louisiana east to Georgia, and from the Gulf north to Tennessee. Though wind damage and large hail are likely to occur as well, there is substantial risk for long-track strong tornadoes. Another large moderate risk zone is posted from the SPC for this risk, which may need to be upgraded to a high risk in future updates. Though the Southeast is where the focus is for the outbreak, severe storms may develop as far north as the eastern Great Lakes.

On Sunday, the secondary low-pressure center will move up through southeastern Canada. But it will still drag the cold front through the East Coast. Leftover severe storms from the morning, or redevelopment and strengthening are expected throughout the day. While the dynamics will not be nearly as impressive as they are on Saturday, severe storms will still be possible as the front works across the coastal areas from north Florida up through the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds and some hail are the most likely severe threats, but a couple of tornadoes may be possible as well.

Other hazards from the storm have been ongoing across the West, and additional winds and a blizzard are in the forecast as well. You can read about those impacts here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.