Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern for the Central U.S., a mix of conditions in Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in Brazil, and heavy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WETTER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR MIDWEST

Cold air moved into the Midwest over the weekend and produced areas of frost. It was light and brief, however. More frost will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. That burst of cold is coming after a small storm moves through Monday and Tuesday that brings streaks of rain through the region. Warmth will return late this week but so will an active pattern that will bring multiple storm systems through going into early May. Gaps between storms will be short, leading to delays in planting either due to soaked fields or just wet conditions.

MULTIPLE STORMS LINING UP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold temperatures over the weekend produced some frosts in the southwestern Plains and may have produced some frost damage to wheat. The front half of the week will be dry and good to get out and do some fieldwork. But afterward, several storm systems are going to move through the region going into early May that will keep the region busy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather and heavy rain, and strong winds are all going to be on the table in the active pattern. That does include some better chances at getting moisture into drier areas around Kansas that have seen drought increasing lately but could slow down planting progress in places that have ample soil moisture at the moment like Nebraska. The gaps between storms will be short for at least 10 days. Though not all areas will see rain falling from each storm, this will likely lead to some sort of planting delay.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

It was cold in the Northern Plains over the weekend with widespread frosts and freezes that led to slower fieldwork progress. A small disturbance will move through Monday with scattered showers but not a lot of rain. The region will await potential for more widespread and heavier showers later this week and weekend. This favors the Dakotas more than Montana, but all areas have potential for some needed rain. If rain is heavy, it could lead to some wetter fields and slow planting progress.

DELTA MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

A system went through the Delta over the weekend and brought some more heavy rain across the middle of the region again, keeping soils wet and likely causing delays to planting, though that had been off to a quick start in most areas anyway. It will be quieter for most of the week with some isolated showers possible Wednesday and Thursday but will get busy again as the storm track runs from the Southern Plains through the Midwest, bringing risks of thunderstorms, severe weather, and heavy rain through the region going into May. The region will be on the edge of the storm track though and may luck out with some more limited precipitation in areas that have become too wet.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES DEALING WITH DROUGHT TO START CROP SEASON

Mixed conditions over the winter and early spring have not been able to affect drought much in the Canadian Prairies, which is expansive. An active pattern this week and next will bring rounds of showers through the region, but nothing overly heavy or widespread is forecast, which causes delays to planting without providing much for soil moisture. Eastern areas have done better recently, though, and soil moisture there may be more favorable than for most of Alberta.

VERY DRY IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

The wet season is effectively over in Brazil, though some isolated showers may still move through Mato Grosso and the far north at times going into May. Much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dry for the foreseeable future, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest, will see a front move in Monday and stick around for a couple of days, but then pull back south later this week. The front probably makes a return next week, which may mess with harvest.

TOO WET FOR HARVEST IN ARGENTINA

A front entered Argentina this weekend and will move north Monday and Tuesday, but then be continually pulled back south throughout the week. Areas of heavy rain will affect harvest and make it difficult going into May as well as lead to quality issues for a fairly good-looking crop. Soil moisture for the coming winter wheat crop is very favorable, however.

COOL AND WET IN EUROPE

Cool and wet conditions have infiltrated much of Europe over the last several days and continues for most of this week as well. Frosts have been common across northern growing areas where wheat is less developed but has likely slowed down early planting of summer crops. Areas in the northwest like France and the UK continue to be too wet while Spain and areas in the south could use more rain. They are getting some better rainfall in the more active pattern and Spain will get in on it this weekend and next week as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DRY BLACK SEA WHEAT

The storm track has favored systems moving through western and central Ukraine at the expense of eastern Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia recently. That pattern continues for the next week or two as well. Hotter and drier conditions in the east have been unfavorable for wheat that is developing quickly after a warm and wet winter. Crop conditions for winter grains are no doubt falling in the region while planting progress is likely quicker than normal.

EARLY DRYNESS NOT A HUGE CONCERN FOR AUSTRALIA

Outside of a small area in northeastern Australia, it was dry over the weekend, which is likely to continue this week as well. Cotton and sorghum harvests continue to increase in mostly favorable conditions. But wheat and canola are being planted in fair to poor soil moisture for the most part. This could cause delays to planting as the country awaits better soil moisture conditions for the developing winter crops. The ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com.

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