Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain, snow, and falling temperatures for portions of the U.S. and increasing rain for Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ROUNDS OF RAIN, COLD FOR MIDWEST

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Midwest into Wednesday as several features move through the region. Very cold air will spread through the region this weekend and early next week. The cold may cause some areas of snow, inducing some lake-effect snow around the Great Lakes. Temperatures should moderate by later next week. The rain will cause issues with remaining fieldwork but will help with drought and provide water to local rivers.

COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Periods of heavy rain have moved through the Central and Southern Plains this week, mostly from central Texas to eastern Kansas, while other areas have seen lighter amounts. Heavy rain has been good for reducing drought and increasing soil moisture for winter wheat but has made the remaining fieldwork difficult. Cold air will be filling into the region over the next few days and another few bursts of precipitation will continue through Monday, with accumulating snow possible for portions of Colorado and Nebraska. Temperatures should moderate by later next week.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow fell over Montana and North Dakota this week. Another burst of light snow will move through Wyoming and southern South Dakota on Saturday and some light snow may be possible for eastern areas on Monday. The recent snow is being followed by very cold air, creating soggy conditions for fields and limiting remaining fieldwork. That cold will linger through most of next week, especially where the heavy snow occurred, and may lead to quality issues for the remaining corn in the field.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Periods of heavy rain have occurred off to the north and west of the Delta this week, but not in the region itself. A front will move through Sunday and Monday with scattered showers, but amounts are forecast to be light as drought continues to build in the region. Water levels on the Mississippi River may have some help with the rainfall that comes through this week, but more is needed to significantly improve conditions on the river.

INCREASING RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Southern Brazil is getting a brief break in the heavy rain, but more is forecast for the weekend and likely next week as well. Showers have moved north into central Brazil, which has been much drier than normal in most spots for the last several weeks. Mato Grosso's forecast has trended drier with the showers, however, at least through the middle of next week before another burst moves through. The increased rainfall will bring better conditions for planting and early growth for soybeans in central areas but continues to cause concerns for wheat quality and harvest in the south, as well as planting for corn and soybeans.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Argentina will be in a more active pattern through next week, with more areas of showers moving through. It may not be all that widespread and heavy which would be preferred, but it is a better turnaround than the very dry conditions seen over the last few months. The increased rainfall will help with remaining filling wheat and germinating corn, as well as prep soils for soybean planting, which starts next week.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system in the eastern Atlantic has been and will continue to send several pieces of energy through Europe with bursts of widespread areas of showers through next week, favorable for winter wheat and other grain establishment but not for the remaining harvest or other fieldwork. Some localized flooding will be possible, though. Temperatures remain above normal, drastically so in the east, which will keep winter grains from going dormant.

RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BLACK SEA

Waves of rain continue across Ukraine and southern Russia through Saturday. Recent rounds of precipitation have improved soil moisture in most areas, though not all have been so lucky. More showers may move through at times next week with an active pattern over Europe. With temperatures remaining above normal through next week and possibly beyond, winter wheat and other grains will get a chance to use the moisture prior to the winter freeze.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

A cold front brought showers to the extreme southeast and coastal areas of Australia this week, but inland areas have been staying dry. Overall, conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling wheat and canola, but better for early harvest of a drought-reduced crop. Conditions for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment are also unfavorable in dry soils. Very little precipitation is forecast for next week, though some showers may come to far southeastern areas again early next week with another cold front.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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