Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain from last week with more showers on the way in the U.S., dryness in central Brazil, and heavy rain forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system brought widespread rainfall to the Midwest over the weekend, including heavy rainfall over the northern half of the region. That will help to reduce drought but will also delay fieldwork. Another system moves through later this week with widespread showers, though they are forecast to be lighter. Another system or series of systems will move through next week as well, making it more difficult to complete fieldwork in some areas. Winter wheat will benefit from increased soil moisture in some areas.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain in Nebraska last week may delay fieldwork for a time but help to reduce drought. Southwestern areas were missed by the system, and soil moisture is drying up for wheat establishment. Frosts have occurred across a wide area over the last several days. A system will largely miss to the north this week, but better rainfall is possible next week with a system or series of systems moving through.

MORE SHOWERS COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered light showers and more rain is forecast for early next week. Due to recent and forecast rain, it may become more difficult to get fall fieldwork done in a timely manner in such an active pattern.

DRY IN THE DELTA

A system will pass by to the north of the Delta later this week and should remain dry. Drought continues to build in the region and is severe across the southern half, even though it got some rain earlier last week. Conditions are favorable for harvest, but not for rebuilding soil moisture.

YET MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers this week are forecast to be light in central Brazil. In contrast, a slow-moving front will bring heavier rain for southern Brazil, which has dealt with flooding and wetness issues for filling and harvest of winter wheat, as well as corn and soybean planting, though the latter issues have not been as severe as expected due to the wetness. Producers are finding a way. They'll need to find more ways this week as heavy rain falls again for much of the week and more is expected next week.

SHOWERS LIMITED FOR ARGENTINA UNTIL WEEKEND

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend, a pattern that has been unfavorable for filling winter wheat and corn planting for the last couple of months. Northern areas should see some rainfall early this week with a front coming through, but the main growing area in the central is not expected to see much. Forecasts for a system this weekend into early next week are much more favorable, which are suggesting more widespread, heavier rain going into next week.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A couple of systems moving through Europe over the next couple of weeks will bring widespread showers to western and southern areas, favorable for winter wheat and other grain establishment where soil moisture has been falling in recent weeks.

SHOWER CHANCES IMPROVING FOR THE BLACK SEA

Light showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend into Monday, but most areas are still lacking soil moisture. There is some potential for better rainfall late week and weekend with a system moving across the north. More showers may be possible next week as well, though to what degree is still uncertain. However, the outlook for soil moisture prior to the winter freeze is improving.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

Dry weather is forecast in Australia for the rest of this week, unfavorable for filling wheat and canola. The pattern does look more active this weekend into next week, which may be of some help, but the forecast rainfall is still for low amounts. Early cotton and sorghum planting is finding rather dry conditions as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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