Commodities Market Impact Weather

GRAND ISLAND, NE (DTN) -- Mild weather in the Corn Belt, rain moving back into the Plains and good planting weather in most of South America outside of southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front brought showers through the Midwest over the last couple of days. Most were light but there were pockets of moderate rain. Another system moves through Friday through the weekend but with limited showers. Temperatures will rise next week. Early harvest conditions remain largely favorable, but more rain would be welcome for immature crops and winter wheat establishment.

MORE RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday will continue with showers through Saturday. Some heavier showers are possible around Texas. Another system moves into the region mid-late next week with scattered showers. Moderate to heavy amounts will be possible with this round, which will slow down the maturing process for corn and soybeans but perk up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Light showers continue in the Northern Plains with a system Thursday but should not impact harvest much. Another system will move in during the middle of next week with a chance for more widespread and heavier showers. Temperatures will waffle a bit but end up mostly above normal going into next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front continues in the Delta on Wednesday with isolated showers. Another system will move through this weekend and may bring a few showers. Any rain could cause delays in the soybean harvest but would help immature cotton.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil this week and continues with lighter showers into central Brazil through Friday. Rain is favorable for wheat, except where flooding occurs. Another front will settle over far southern Brazil next week with more chances for heavy rain. The rain could cause issues with the remaining safrinha corn harvest and early planting but is setting up most of Brazil with good conditions for establishment as planting increases throughout the month.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Rainfall has been increasing in Argentina lately, easing the country out of last season's historic drought. Another front and system will move through early-mid next week. Northern areas stand to benefit the most from rainfall, but the country is in good shape for developing wheat and any early corn planting.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR EUROPE

Scattered showers moved through most of Europe this week, bringing a slight cool-down from the extreme heat. Temperatures will perk up ahead of a larger system, a forecast for the weekend into next week that could bring some strong winds and heavy rainfall. Overall, conditions are favorable for harvest and winter wheat planting and early establishment, though not perfect for either. Next week will be more difficult for fieldwork in most areas.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

Winter wheat areas in the Black Sea region could use more rain for establishment, but it is not critically dry yet. The system that moved through Europe will also sweep through the Black Sea region over the next day or two, but showers look limited for most areas. Dry conditions follow for most of next week with increasing temperatures.

AUSTRALIA HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia for the next week. Western areas got some rain this week, but soil moisture continues to slowly drop as El Nino takes control. With heat also building, especially across the East, conditions for reproductive to filling wheat and canola continue to drop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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