Commodities Market Impact Weather

GRAND ISLAND, Neb. (DTN) -- Mild weather in the Corn Belt and heavier rain in the Southern Plains and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MILD MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A front continues to bring light showers through the Midwest on Tuesday, along with another burst of mild air. Another system moves through Friday and through the weekend, but with limited showers. Temperatures will rise next week. Early harvest conditions continue to be favorable, but more rain would be welcome for immature crops and winter wheat planting and establishment.

HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front continues across the Southern Plains with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Another system promptly moves into the region Thursday and continues through Saturday, making for a week's worth of significant showers for the region. Moderate to heavy amounts will continue to be possible, which will slow down the maturing process for corn and soybeans but perk up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Light showers will move through the Northern Plains with a system Wednesday and Thursday, but should not impact harvest too much. Temperatures will waffle a bit but end up mostly above normal going into next week.

SOME SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front will move through the Delta Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers. Another system will move through this weekend and may bring some showers as well. Any rain could cause delays in the soybean harvest but would help immature cotton.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the weekend. Another will bring more heavy rain potential through Thursday. Rain is favorable for wheat, except where flooding occurs. Heavy rain could cause issues with the remaining safrinha corn harvest and early planting but is setting up most of Brazil with good conditions as planting increases throughout the month.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Rainfall has been increasing in Argentina lately and another front moving through early this week should produce more showers, easing the country out of last season's historic drought. Quieter conditions follow for the next week, but the country is in mostly good shape for developing wheat and any early corn planting.

SYSTEM EASING EXTREME HEAT IN EUROPE

Hot and largely dry conditions over the weekend accelerated this year's crop toward maturity with favorable conditions for harvest in Europe. Scattered showers moved through far western areas Sunday and Monday and that system will sweep through most of the continent with showers over the next few days. Temperatures will moderate a bit behind the system but will perk back up after a couple of days. A larger system is forecast for the weekend into next week that could bring some strong winds and heavy rainfall. Overall, conditions are favorable for harvest and winter wheat planting and early establishment, though not perfect for either.

BLACK SEA COULD USE MORE RAIN FOR WHEAT

It was dry over the weekend in Ukraine while western Russia saw some light rain in spots. Overall, it was neither favorable nor unfavorable for maturing corn or winter wheat planting and establishment. Winter wheat areas could use more rain for establishment, but it is not critically dry yet. The system that moves through Europe will also sweep through the Black Sea region, but showers look limited for most areas.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY TOO DRY FOR WHEAT AND CANOLA

It should be largely dry this week in eastern Australia but western areas will get some rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Soil moisture continues to slowly drop as El Nino takes control. With heat also expected to build this week, especially across the East, conditions for reproductive to filling wheat and canola continue to drop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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