Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air moving back into the Corn Belt, recent rain in the southwestern Plains, and a drier Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIDWEST GETTING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR

Cold air has produced frosts and freezes in the eastern Midwest over the last few mornings. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. A system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place for eastern areas well into May, unfavorable for planting and supportive for additional frosts.

RAIN WAS HEAVY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought widespread showers to the drought areas in the Central and Southern Plains over the last couple of days, being substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought but should not make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible Friday with a cold front sliding south through the region. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor forages and corn and soybean planting and establishment.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS EASING NEXT WEEK

A system will bring scattered showers to the Northern Plains over the next few days, mostly in the form of rain despite cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting. Temperatures will start rising in the west this weekend and should get closer to normal for eastern areas next week, being more favorable for fieldwork.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers will move through the Delta with a couple of systems through Saturday before becoming much drier. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost early next week.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES NEXT WEEK

Below-normal temperatures continue to limit melting of the snowpack across the eastern Canadian Prairies. Western areas with less snow cover should see higher temperatures. The overall cooler nature will continue to limit or prohibit fieldwork and seeding across the east, but western areas may see a window opening. Some showers will move through with a system this week, being a mix of rain and snow, but should dry out afterward. Warmer temperatures will spread across more of the region next week.

SPOTTY RAIN FOR CORN IN BRAZIL

A system is moving through Brazil with now isolated showers over the next day or so. Another system is likely to stall out over southern areas next week with scattered showers but may be just south of the primary safrinha corn areas. Instead, rain will condition soils for winter wheat planting. Overall, corn conditions are good for the time-being, with an eye toward additional rain for the next couple of weeks and potential frosts through June.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Most of the agricultural areas in Argentina have missed out on recent rainfall and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two. A system moving through Sunday may provide some moisture, but more will be needed.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE, SPAIN STILL DRY

A couple of systems will spread showers through most of Europe over the next week. Spain is in drought and in need of more rain for both winter and summer crops but will largely stay dry. Conditions across most of the rest of the continent are in good shape.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

More showers are falling in the Black Sea region with another system that is slowly moving through this week. Some chilly air may move into Ukraine through this weekend, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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