Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. and a return to an active pattern, snowmelt in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, and rains in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

STORM SYSTEM COMING TO MIDWEST

Dryness and above-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the last several days have been favorable for spring fieldwork. Snowpack in the north is essentially gone. A system will bring a few waves of showers through the region Friday through Monday, which may be cold enough for some areas of snow as well. A burst of colder air will move through behind the system, stalling progress on fieldwork and planting. Temperatures will be more on a seesaw, rising again next week, but likely falling again behind the next system later next week that is also likely to bring more rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some spotty showers may develop across the Central and Southern Plains Thursday as a system approaches from the west. Though spotty, they could be significant in some areas. More widespread showers are forecast to move through northern areas Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions and substantial drought remain a concern for winter wheat as well as germination for spring and summer crops. The system this week is also bringing strong winds, which is unfavorable for all locations.

SNOWPACK MELTING IN NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent above-normal temperatures have been melting the snowpack in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, starting the flooding process. Though cooler temperatures will move through over the next few days -- and should remain near to below normal through next week -- the melting should continue. Cooler temperatures come with chances for showers through Saturday, including a burst of snow in Montana and potential for a couple of spots elsewhere to pick up a brief, little bit of snow as well.

DELTA GETTING MORE RAIN

Showers are possible in the Delta with a system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico for Thursday. Another front moves through on Saturday with more widespread rain. Many areas are fairly wet from recent rainfall, limiting fieldwork and planting. Precipitation is becoming less frequent, but still steady through the rest of April, which may cause some areas that are too wet, while others will find the proper conditions to get into the field.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BRAZIL

Another system moving north from Argentina will increase showers across Brazil through the weekend. Another is likely to move through next week as well. Overall, systems are providing adequate and timely moisture for developing safrinha corn, though wet season showers are diminishing. This pattern will need to be maintained for the late-planted crop.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system brought some isolated showers to the main growing region in Argentina. Another should go through early next week. Soil moisture has improved recently, but crop conditions are still poor due to heat and drought over the summer. Systems had been coming at a more frequent pace but will likely slow down after next week. Soil moisture is still relatively low despite recent rains and more will be needed by the end of the month for winter wheat planting.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A couple of systems have been bringing showers to Europe this week. Italy has seen improved rain, but Spain is missing out on most of it. Showers will be sagging south into the Mediterranean next week. Most areas have favorable weather conditions.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

Periods of showers continue to move across the Black Sea region through the weekend, and across Ukraine into next week. Overall, growing conditions are mostly favorable across the region. Some areas may be too wet and cool to plant corn, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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