Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather in the U.S., slow snowmelt in the Northern Plains, and isolated rains in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST TO SEE ANOTHER STRONG STORM THIS WEEK

A system produced heavy precipitation across the Midwest over the weekend, including a band of heavy snow from eastern Iowa through northern Michigan and flooding rain near the Ohio River. A little follow-up storm produced more snow across Iowa on Sunday, with that system spreading more showers across the eastern half of the Midwest on Monday. A couple of other little systems and disturbances will bring some areas of showers throughout the week, followed by another stronger storm for the end of the week. Another round of heavy precipitation, strong winds, and a band of snow across the north is expected as we turn the calendar to April. The wetter conditions across a lot of the region are causing a slow start to fieldwork.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

A storm system late last week produced widespread heavy precipitation in the southeastern Plains. The southwest was largely bypassed by the system. Another over the weekend went through Kansas and Nebraska with scattered showers and some heavier snow in Nebraska. But many of the HRW wheat areas were missed again by anything substantial. A couple of frosty mornings are occurring early this week, with temperatures below freezing down into the Texas Panhandle both Monday and Tuesday. This week will feature a few smaller systems with areas of showers for the north before a larger storm builds for late Thursday into Friday. Northern and eastern areas again look to have the best chance for precipitation while strong winds develop elsewhere, sapping soil moisture. The outlook for the southwestern Plains remains grim.

SNOWPACK SLOW TO MELT IN NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES

It was dry and cold over the weekend, limiting snowmelt in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Some occasional bands of snow will move through this week and may add to snowpack across the south late this week. Cold temperatures will limit melting for yet another week and the risk of significant flooding is increasing for when temperatures turn higher, perhaps abruptly.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN DELTA

Strong and severe storms moved through the Delta on Friday along with heavy rain. The front to the system stalled out across the south, with more showers that developed Sunday. The moisture is keeping fields wet and fieldwork slow. The region will get a few dry days this week before more showers come through with a stronger system Friday and Saturday.

SHOWERS NOW ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers have become isolated through central Brazil and are forecast to remain that way through April, leaving some concern for enough available soil moisture for developing safrinha corn. Systems moving through Argentina will bring showers into southern Brazil, however, which may enhance showers there at times.

MORE RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Last week's heavy rains in Argentina were not enough to turn conditions around for corn and soybeans that have been severely damaged by heat and dryness this season. The end of March continues to be active with several more fronts moving through with more showers going into April as well. Temperatures look to waffle a bit more as it starts to come to fall harvest time.

SPAIN, ITALY IN NEED OF MORE RAIN

An active weather pattern continues to bring a storm system with widespread showers through the eastern half of Europe early this week, followed by a couple more to end the week. After a warm start to spring in March, temperatures are trending below normal as we move into April, which may cause some cooler morning temperatures and localized frosts, along with slower development of winter grains. Spain and Italy will miss out on more of the precipitation, which it needs as it has been much drier over the last few months.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR BLACK SEA

A system went through the Black Sea region with some showers over the weekend and will be followed by another early this week. More showers move through this weekend into next week but also some cooler temperatures, which may slow development of winter grains. Overall though, growing conditions are mostly favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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