Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system in the southern and eastern U.S. and another stretch of dryness in southern South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RISING TEMPERATURES IN MIDWEST

Temperatures are moderating in the Midwest this week. A front will move through on Thursday and Friday with some light showers, but the main system will come through Saturday and Sunday with more widespread precipitation, though mostly in the form of rain. Northwestern areas are unlikely to see any significant precipitation into early next week. A larger storm may develop in the middle of next week with more widespread precipitation.

THANKSGIVING STORM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system will dive into the Southern Plains, producing scattered showers tonight through Saturday before moving northeast out of the region. While some good precipitation may fall in west Texas and Oklahoma, it should be lighter elsewhere in wheat country, especially where drought is the worst in southwest Kansas.

BRIEF WARMUP IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are moderating in the Northern Plains this week and will even go above normal for a couple of days, though snowpack could keep them down a bit in North Dakota. A system will move through this weekend with some light precipitation and a return to arctic temperatures behind it. Another system could bring heavy precipitation around the middle of next week.

RIVER LEVELS FALLING ON LOWER MISSISSIPPI

Recent precipitation to the north has improved water levels on the Mississippi River, but that is only temporary as the water levels will fall throughout the week. A system will bring scattered showers to the area Thursday through Saturday, which may produce some improvements or hold off the decline. If another system moves through in the middle of next week, that would also keep water levels from falling too harshly.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL DRY AGAIN

Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil as is typical for this time of year. Southern areas saw showers over the last couple of days but will be dry for the rest of the week. Showers could fill back in over the weekend or early next week but would be spotty and light. Precipitation has been below normal over southern areas for the last month. Good rains earlier in the spring have set corn and soybeans in mostly good shape to start the season, but soil moisture is starting to fall across the south and concerns are growing about increasing dryness where rains are disappointing as early planted crops are getting closer to pollinating stages.

ARGENTINA'S DROUGHT CONTINUES

Isolated showers moved through Argentina this weekend and hit areas that were missed last weekend. Soil moisture is still not favorable, and dryness is expected into early next week. The dryness and drought continue to be concerns until showers become more consistent.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers continue in a few bursts for the Black Sea region this week and weekend. Soil moisture is mostly good for wheat before it goes dormant over the next couple of weeks. Prospects are high for a good crop depending on how much was able to be planted this fall.

AUSTRALIA DRYING OUT

Recent heavy rains in eastern Australia have caused quality concerns for winter wheat and canola over the winter and spring but have also led to forecasts for record yields. Drier weather this week should help crops dry out for harvest, which is starting to pick up. More isolated showers are possible this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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