Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Though hot and dry conditions are still forecast for August, small disturbances bringing scattered showers and occasionally some cooler air are the weather factors driving the market Thursday.

MIDWEST GETTING RAIN CHANCES

A front moving through the Midwest will stall out near the Ohio River for a few days, continuing showers through Saturday. Another front will move through this weekend into early next week with more scattered showers and a brief break from the heat. The fronts will bring scattered showers that will be beneficial to some areas while others will be left out. Areas near the Ohio River could see some flooding, however. Heat will continue for the next few days, but temperatures will fall several degrees behind the second front, bringing a few days of cooler temperatures before they increase again later next week.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT, EYEING WEEKEND FRONT

With a ridge in the Central and Southern Plains for the next couple of weeks, hotter and drier conditions will be in the background for a while. There will be a couple of fronts that move through that bring temperatures down a few degrees and offering some limited showers, but the overall hot and dry pattern will be stressful for both plants and animals.

LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers will continue to move through the Northern Plains for the next couple of weeks while disturbances ride the top of a ridge through Canada. When fronts and showers are not moving through, temperatures will be above normal and stress to crops will be more likely with declining soil moisture.

ONLY SOME SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Some isolated showers will be in the Delta through the weekend, but most areas will stay dry. When showers are not around, temperatures will be high, causing more stress. A front will sag through the region early next week with scattered showers and another respite from the overall heat that continues to be a concern for the region through August.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEATING BACK UP NEXT WEEK

Excessive heat is relaxing for a few days, but the Pacific Northwest could still use some moisture for filling spring wheat. Temperatures will rise again this weekend and the heat will continue through most of next week. Soil moisture continues to decline, causing crop conditions to drop for the rest of the season even though they are mostly excellent currently. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES COULD USE MORE RAIN

With the storm track continuing through the Canadian Prairies for a while, multiple chances for showers and mixed temperatures will be mostly beneficial for filling out wheat and canola. Southwestern areas are in need of more moisture to finish out the crop but may have to wait until late next week to get it.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front will bring scattered showers to southern Brazil through the middle of next week, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to develop and approach reproduction. The showers may get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

A system brought showers to northern Argentina this week but missed the primary wheat areas which are more in need. These southern areas may get some isolated showers over the weekend with a system developing in the region, but many areas are forecast to remain dry.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA

An upper-level low has stalled out in the Black Sea region, bringing scattered showers all week long to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. The upper low will retreat southward over the weekend, putting an end to the showers. A front will move into northwestern areas over the weekend and stall, with limited showers next week. The showers will continue to benefit developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers but make conditions more difficult for wheat harvest. Where showers do not occur, temperatures will be higher, hastening crop development.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

Heat across much of Europe this week is causing more stress to summer crops. A cold front will bring temperatures down for northern areas over the course of the next few days, but heat could build right back in next week. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will continue to have more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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