Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer air and occasional precipitation with a spring-like feel across the U.S. and more dryness concerns across southern Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

WARM AND MUDDY MIDWEST

Recent precipitation in the Midwest continues to keep soils soggy and is preventing producers from getting into their fields. Temperatures are rising above normal and should be for the next 10 days, coaxing winter wheat out of dormancy and melting northern snowpack. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, which will slow drainage of wet soils but drier areas in the northwest could use more.

SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Above normal temperatures in the Southern Plains should awaken more of the wheat out of dormancy this week, but much of the crop will continue to find fairly dry soils. A disturbance late this week and another early next week bring chances for at least some precipitation, but much more will be needed.

STAYING ACTIVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will continue in the Pacific Northwest as a more active period sets up with waves of showers every couple of days or so. Precipitation will help to build additional snowpack, improve soil moisture, and reduce drought prior to spring planting.

MELTING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures above normal continue in the Northern Plains for at least the next 10 days. Melting snowpack in the Red River Valley could cause some flooding, but chances for precipitation are low through the weekend, which will not improve drought across the west. There is some potential for better precipitation next week.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers will be focused in central and northern Brazil for most of this week. Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture across the south, but drought still remains a big concern in these areas. Another system will move through Friday through Sunday across southern areas with more scattered showers, but overall, below-normal precipitation is forecast.

ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Dryness continues to be the theme in Argentina for the next couple of weeks, but it will not be completely dry. A system will move through late this week with some spotty showers, but overall amounts appear to be very low. Recent rains may have some benefit to late-planted corn and soybeans, but the dryness that is now forecast will limit those benefits.

BLACK SEA STAYING COLD AND DORMANT

In the Black Sea, conditions for the wheat going into the winter were mixed and there are large concerns about production due to the war. Precipitation over the winter has been above normal and should set up plants in favorable shape for development once temperatures allow. Cold temperatures this week will keep wheat mostly dormant, but warmer temperatures are forecast next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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