Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A frontal boundary with moderate to heavy rainfall slipping south through the middle of the United States, and more frost potential for southern Brazil, are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Thursday.

HEAVY SOUTHERN MIDWEST RAINFALL

Heavy rainfall across the northern Midwest on Wednesday missed some key areas of western Minnesota where drought likely intensified during the last week. But the rainfall was very welcome across Wisconsin, northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, which helped ease drought in these areas. The system will move slowly south during the next several days, continuing to bring moderate to heavy rain across the region. The rain will help overall, but some of the wetter spots in northern Missouri and Illinois could use some dryness. After this system moves through, drier conditions will develop for next week. This may wipe out any benefit from the rainfall over the northwest, but will benefit the saturated soils across the south and east.

PERIODS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

A system will continue to bring scattered showers to the Southern Plains through Friday as a front slips south. The region could stay active through Monday, which would benefit developing to reproductive corn and soybeans outside of some flood risks. Remaining winter wheat harvest will have to dodge the rain or continue to wait.

TURNING HOTTER AND DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers Tuesday night into Wednesday were disappointing and the Northern Plains will be much drier during the next week. Isolated showers may develop at times but will be unlikely to have a large impact on developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Heat will build back into the region next week and several days near 100 degrees Fahrenheit will continue to stress crops.

DELTA SHOWERS INCREASING FRIDAY

After a dry next couple of days, more showers will develop in the Delta as a front sags into the area this weekend into next week. Conditions are mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HEATWAVE IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Crop conditions in the Canadian Prairies continue to deteriorate as heat and dryness continue to take their toll on crops. A significant heatwave will build back into the region during the next two days and continue through next week, accelerating crop growth even further. There will be some isolated showers that move through, but most areas are likely to miss out, creating more stress outside of northwest Alberta.

FROST FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Dry weather continues to stress filling corn in Brazil, which is a large portion of the crop still in the field. Winter wheat has fared better but could use more rainfall. A front will bring showers to southern areas through the weekend, which could offer limited benefit to corn that is still further behind developmentally. There is another chance for frosts Sunday-through-Tuesday mornings that could have more detrimental effects on corn across the south.

BLACK SEA HEAT AND DRYNESS

An overall hot and dry forecast is expected in Ukraine and western Russia through the weekend. This could cause stress for some of the locally drier areas of the region, though many still have plenty of soil moisture to cope with the heat. The Volga Valley region of Russia will likely have the hardest time dealing with the heat. Showers and a break from the heat is expected to come next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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