Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A day or two of heat across the Plains, the prospect for widespread rainfall across the Corn Belt, building heat in the Pacific Northwest, and the ongoing heatwave in the Black Sea region are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Wednesday.

EASTERN MIDWEST RAINS INCOMING

Several waves of showers moved through the Midwest this weekend into Monday with many reports of severe weather. Rain mostly skipped Minnesota and northwest Iowa, where drought has continued to worsen. Scattered showers with hail moved through Iowa on Tuesday and may have caused some localized damage, but the rain that occurred was helpful. More widespread showers are expected Thursday through the weekend as a system moves through. This is likely to produce good rainfall for most states except in Minnesota, where moisture has been hardest to come by. The system will stall in the area with continued shower chances into next week. Most areas will see good rainfall chances to help developing corn and soybeans.

SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT AHEAD OF RAIN

Scattered showers moved across Nebraska on Tuesday with more expected in the state Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next system that will move through Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers. The rains will be helpful for developing corn and soybeans, but could cause some delays for winter wheat harvest. Until the front moves through, temperatures approaching triple digits are expected.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains during the weekend, but rainfall was not consistent or widespread. Most areas saw less than 1 inch as the drought continues to produce harsh impacts for developing crops. Temperatures will go through a roller-coaster type pattern during the next few days but generally be above normal as we get into next week. There are a couple of chances for rain Wednesday through Friday, but showers look to be very isolated. A few more showers will be possible across the Dakotas this weekend which could help to add at least a little bit to rainfall totals, but again will be scattered and light.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IN DELTA THIS WEEKEND

A front that moved through the Delta on Monday gave most crops a good drink without being too heavy. More showers will be likely this weekend as a front settles into the area. If the front stays stationary, saturated soils could have flooding issues again.

DAILY SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST

Tropical Storm Claudette moved through the Southeast with widespread rainfall last weekend into Monday, being heavy near its path. A stalled front will continue to produce more showers through the weekend and possibly next week as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

WARMER AND DRIER IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies last weekend, but were mostly light. Temperatures will be more above normal than below it for the next week or two. Soil conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat and canola, but more showers are needed to keep up with developing crops, especially in the southwest. Only small chances for rain are in the forecast for the next week or two. This will likely drive down soil moisture a bit unless the rains are better than forecast.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINFALL

Central areas of Brazil continue to be dry, but southern areas will see even more precipitation chances this weekend and into next week. Corn continues to see terrible conditions as they get closer to or through maturity but conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE CONTINUES

Heat that has built into the Black Sea region since the weekend will be a mainstay through the rest of the week, especially across southwest Russia, where temperatures may eclipse 100 degrees Fahrenheit for several days. Soil moisture will hold out for a while as showers had been very persistent last week, but the heat could quickly turn soils dry for developing corn and spring wheat. Conditions are favorable for maturing winter wheat, however. Showers will start to move into western portions of the region this weekend, dropping temperatures by several degrees. It may take until the middle of next week to do so for Russia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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