Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cooler than normal conditions for the Midwest, dry conditions for U.S. winter wheat planting, and dryness in central Brazil are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

VERY COOL FOR MIDWEST

In the Midwest, frontal boundary brought some rain in the last few days that caused harvest delays for corn and soybeans along with winter wheat planting. The small percentage of wheat already in the ground will benefit from the increased topsoil moisture. The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for the western Midwest to be mostly dry Tuesday, with isolated showers north for Wednesday and Thursday, then mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Saturday. For the eastern Midwest, isolated showers in the north for today, isolated to scattered showers for Wednesday to Friday, then scattered showers west for late Saturday. Temperatures will fall significantly in the Midwest, leading to frost potential across the north middle to late week. This may cause more rapid maturation of crops across the region.

DRY WEEK FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, soil moisture remains adequate for early germination of wheat, though it is a bit drier in Kansas. Dryness the rest of the week should allow more winter wheat planting progress to be made and corn harvest to continue. Dryness may build further in Kansas and Nebraska.

DRY, COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, overall dryness this week will benefit ongoing harvest and fieldwork. A couple nights near or below freezing will be possible in the middle of the week and could cause more rapid maturing.

DRIER DELTA CONDITIONS

In the Delta, drier weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with favorable harvest and fieldwork weather.

SHOWERS, THEN DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST

In the Southeast, wet soils from two tropical systems over the last seven to 10 days have likely caused some flooding and damage to mature cotton. Showers exit early Wednesday before beneficial drier weather sets up through the weekend and into next week.

MAINLY DRY IN BRAZIL

In Brazil, scattered showers will continue along a stalled frontal boundary across the south through the next week for Rio Grande do Sul while other areas remain relatively dry. Producers await the start of the wet season for soybean planting in the central and north, but conditions are much better in the south for full-season corn and filling winter wheat.

BENEFICIAL ARGENTINA MOISTURE

In Argentina, moderate to heavy rain fell across much of the country this weekend, boosting soil moisture for many central areas and in the south. This will benefit developing wheat and prepare soils for spring planting, though it will not be enough to reverse the drought yet. Showers will focus over northern areas this week along a stalled frontal boundary while cooler weather develops across the south, limiting growth for wheat.

FAVORABLE HARVEST WEATHER FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, outside of some isolated showers in the east, most areas will be dry this week, with unencumbered progress.

SHOWERS IN EUROPE

A system is slowly moving eastward in Europe, bringing periods of showers to most areas and boosting soil moisture for germinating winter crops. Harvest activities have been delayed, however. Another system will move into the west later this week with a potent punch of showers through the weekend.

DRY RUSSIA FORECAST

Russia and Ukraine wheat areas continue to be under drought conditions, but showers did fall over Ukraine this weekend. Showers will continue over Ukraine through much of the week as a cutoff system stalls in the area, but very little to no precipitation is expected in Russia. The showers will benefit planting and developing winter wheat in Ukraine, but the dryness continues to be a concern for Russia.

LIGHT AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Scattered showers fell across southern areas this weekend in Australia. A system will bring light showers across the east this week, but most areas will be on the drier end. Queensland is still behind in rainfall and could use additional moisture for developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CHINA

In China, recent showers maintained adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans in the northeast, but crops should be coming closer to maturity and drier conditions would be more favorable. Scattered showers will likely delay maturing corn and soybeans. Overall favorable conditions are found in the south for rice and sugarcane and in the North China Plain for winter wheat and rapeseed planting.

INDIA MONSOONS WITHDRAW

Monsoon moisture continues to withdraw from India and showers are becoming much more isolated across the north and west. Still, late-season showers can be counted on in the east.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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