DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for all eight major fertilizers were slightly lower again the first week of July 2020, according to retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks the fifth consecutive week all fertilizer prices were down from the previous month.

While prices for all fertilizers are lower, none are down a substantial amount, which DTN designates as 5% or more. DAP has an average price of $405 per ton, MAP $427/ton, potash $360/ton, urea $360/ton, 10-34-0 $467/ton, anhydrous $461/ton, UAN28 $233/ton and UAN32 $272/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.28/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

With global fertilizer prices at or near 10-year lows, the fertilizer price outlook calls for continued lower prices, according to "Waiting for Demand," the semi-annual global fertilizer outlook report published by RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness earlier this week.

Falling energy prices, mainly for natural gas and coal, is one of the biggest impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are two of the raw materials used to manufacture such fertilizers as urea and processed phosphate. Heavy supplies of nutrients were another reason for lower fertilizer prices, the report stated.

"We expect that there is little upside for prices over the next six months across the nutrient complex," the report said. "With relatively cheap inputs, utilization remaining at low levels, and our outlook for commodity prices also staying low, we expect this low-price environment will continue for at least the next six months."

COVID-19-related interruption to global production and/or the supply chain remains a risk to the global fertilizer market, the report stated. Shortages could lead to sharp, short-term price increases, the report said.

Lower oil prices, a poor farm economy and a strong U.S. dollar are pressuring fertilizer prices in North America. And these factors will combine to put more pressure on nitrogen, phosphorus and potash markets in North America in the coming months, according to the report.

"Fertilizer prices are likely going to have to adjust to reflect the value proposition now offered as a result of a deteriorating commodity price environment," the report said.

Retail fertilizers are all lower in price from a year ago. Anhydrous is 21% lower, MAP is 20% less expensive, DAP is 19% lower, both urea and UAN28 are 16% less expensive, UAN32 is 15% lower, potash is 8% less expensive and 10-34-0 is 4% lower from last year at this time.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jul 8-12, 2019	497	532	392	431
Aug 5-9 2019	495	531	395	428
Sep 2-6 2019	491	488	387	408
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019	476	474	384	404
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019	464	472	383	402
Nov 25-29 2019	456	465	381	386
Dec 23-27 2019	443	454	377	378
Jan 20-24 2020	413	435	374	357
Feb 17-21 2020	410	435	373	361
Mar 16-20 2020	408	433	370	382
Apr 13-17 2020	410	433	370	384
May 11-15 2020	413	433	370	388
Jun 8-12 2020	406	430	363	367
Jul 6-10 2020	405	427	360	360
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jul 8-12, 2019	485	585	276	317
Aug 5-9 2019	491	580	272	320
Sep 2-6 2019	473	522	255	290
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019	470	511	253	289
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019	468	503	251	291
Nov 25-29 2019	472	497	245	277
Dec 23-27 2019	469	488	240	276
Jan 20-24 2020	470	487	237	275
Feb 17-21 2020	464	490	235	277
Mar 16-20 2020	466	491	235	278
Apr 13-17 2020	468	492	236	279
May 11-15 2020	468	492	237	280
Jun 8-12 2020	468	472	235	276
Jul 6-10 2020	467	461	233	272

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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