Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Two big storm systems moving through the U.S., a colder outlook for next week, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and overall drying conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST IMPROVING SOIL MOISTURE

A bigger system will move through the Midwest for Thursday and Friday with widespread precipitation, though mostly across the south. Another system is forecast for early next week that could bring through some significant precipitation as well. That could improve soil moisture and reduce some of the drought in the region. However, very cold air is forecast to push through behind it for Thanksgiving in the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The colder pattern will shut down opportunities for field work a little early.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A strong system is moving through the Central and Southern Plains with widespread showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Some areas of heavy rain should be favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought. Some flooding will be possible though, especially across Texas. Though temperatures will be quite warm into next week, a big blast of arctic air is forecast to move through behind next week's system, though to what degree is still being worked out by models. Indications are that additional bursts of cold are likely for December that may come with some significant precipitation that includes snow, meaning that the window for getting fieldwork done is shutting down, particularly across the north.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS, COLD BURST NEXT WEEK

Some showers moved through the Northern Plains on Wednesday with a system passing through Canada. Drier conditions are forecast until a significant cold front moves through early next week. Along with chances for rain changing to snow, temperatures are forecast to take a massive dive behind that front and a much colder pattern is forecast to continue into December. That will shut down any winter wheat and start to freeze soils a bit early this year. Any areas with fieldwork to do have limited time in which to do so.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. Though we should see a system moving through Thursday and Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and another is forecast to do so early next week, that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. They will provide at least temporary boosts, however.

HEAVY RAIN MIGRATING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has stalled in northern Brazil. Showers will slowly build their back to the south through central Brazil through this weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER DESPITE FRONTS

Soil moisture remains high in Argentina for early this growing season. However, an overall drier pattern is starting to set up for the country. Fronts are still forecast to move through, and one will do so Thursday into Friday, but they are forecast to produce only patchy showers. It may take some time and be slow to occur, but soil moisture may slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

Scattered showers continue across much of Europe going into next week. Temperatures are colder now though and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy through this weekend from Hungary into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems are moving through the Black Sea region this week, but have been producing limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. The same goes for next week as well. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy.

SHOWERS LIMITED IN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across Australia. Showers have been favoring western areas this week while eastern areas are only getting some isolated showers this weekend. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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