Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Hot and dry weather in the Central U.S., and showers across Argentina, southern Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

DRIER CONDITIONS PROMOTING HARVEST IN THE MIDWEST

It was warm and dry in the Midwest over the weekend. That largely continues throughout the week. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, continuing to some degree into next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

DRIER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was warm and dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. That continues for most of the week, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region on Friday and may produce showers through the weekend and into next week as well. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

NORTHERN PLAINS DRY WITH SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS WEEK

Warm and dry weather over the weekend was favorable for maturing corn and soybeans in the Northern Plains as well as early harvest. A front will move into the region on Wednesday and may produce some showers, with better chances for Friday into the weekend. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

DELTA DRYING OUT AGAIN

Warm and dry weather over the weekend was favorable for harvest in the Delta, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Largely drier conditions in the forecast would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

CENTRAL BRAZIL ONLY SEEING SPOTTY RAIN

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and has stalled. It will produce rainfall there throughout this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has gotten drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying over the next couple of weeks.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina with more rainfall over the weekend, continuing to sustain good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Drier conditions are forecast for most of this week with another front moving through this coming weekend. Some showers may fall over far northern areas as well. Soybean planting may begin as early as this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Isolated showers moved through southern Europe over the weekend, including in Spain which has been very hot and dry lately. Some showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for much of the week, particularly in the Balkans which need rain. After rains move out of Spain on Monday, drier conditions are forecast there as well.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING FOR BLACK SEA REGION

A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall in the Black Sea region this week, particularly in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier weather is forecast for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia has gone into a drier stretch again, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas, but most of the country will be dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this coming weekend, however.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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