DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska.

The trough will move eastward for late week and weekend while another trough moves in right behind it over the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

This second trough is forecast to sit over the West and become cutoff into next week before moving eastward. Meanwhile, the ridge will redevelop across Canada next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front in the Northern Plains will try to produce showers as it moves through the Midwest this weekend. A secondary system will try to form with the cutoff low next week, which may mean more showers for the Plains. Temperatures are forecast to largely remain above normal through next week despite the fronts and systems.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...23 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SANTA FE, NM 0.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska.

The trough will move eastward for late week and weekend while another trough moves in right behind it over the weekend. This second trough is forecast to sit over the West and become cutoff into next week. Meanwhile, the ridge will redevelop across Canada next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front in the Northern Plains will try to produce showers as it moves through the Midwest this weekend. A secondary system will try to form with the cutoff low next week, which may mean more showers for the Plains. Temperatures are forecast to largely remain above normal through next week despite the fronts and systems.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry weather over the weekend was favorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as early harvest.

A front will move into the region on Wednesday and may produce some showers, with better chances for Friday into the weekend. Any rainfall is likely to be disruptive to the harvest and not favorable for even immature crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was warm and dry over the weekend. That continues for most of the week, favorable for fieldwork of all kinds. A front will move into the region on Friday and may produce showers through the weekend and into next week as well. Any rainfall would not be favorable for harvest, but would keep soil moisture fairly high for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was warm and dry over the weekend. That largely continues throughout the week. A front will try to produce showers as it gets into the region over the weekend, continuing to some degree into next week. Rainfall could be disruptive to maturing crops and harvest.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather over the weekend was favorable for harvest, but not for the river systems, which are drying back out again after getting a nice bump from last week's rainfall. Largely drier conditions in the forecast would cause transportation issues for much of the fall season.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and has stalled. It will produce rainfall there throughout this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has gotten drier and only spotty showers are in the forecast through next week, unfavorable for soybean planting after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted are at risk of germinating and quickly dying over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through with more rainfall over the weekend, continuing to sustain good soil moisture for early planting and establishment. Drier conditions are forecast for most of this week with another front moving through this coming weekend. Some showers may fall over far northern areas as well. Soybean planting may begin as early as this week, but most areas will wait for significant planting later on in October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers moved through southern areas over the weekend, including in Spain which has been very hot and dry lately. Some showers continue over eastern areas of the continent for much of the week, particularly in the Balkans which need rain. After rains move out of Spain on Monday, drier conditions are forecast there as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through southeastern Europe is promoting more widespread rainfall this week, particularly in Ukraine. Some areas remain very dry though for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier weather is forecast for next week and beyond, which may mean only limited benefit from this week's rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The country has gone into a drier stretch again, which is somewhat troubling for winter wheat and canola going through their reproductive stages. Some showers will go through southeastern areas, but most of the country will be dry this week. Western areas could see some beneficial rainfall this coming weekend, however.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China. Central China continues to see occasional showers this week, favorable for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers northwest through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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