Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Scattered rain showers continue across the Corn Belt into next week, safrinha harvest will slow down with rain in southern Brazil, and drier conditions return in the Southern Plains next week. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Friday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LAST INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE MIDWEST

Southern areas saw a break in rainfall through the mid-week. Heavier rain could tag western areas on Friday before pushing east into the weekend. Overall, the pattern looks active next week as well, favorable for building soil moisture in western areas but unfavorable for those trying to get fieldwork done. Temperatures will remain above average in the east and south with some cool shots in the northwest.

DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain and flooding have impacted the Southeast Plains this week. Wheat harvest is off to a slow start in the Southern Plains with overly wet conditions. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain. By next week, thunderstorm complexes could provide widespread showers to the Central Plains as showers become less frequent in the Southern Plains.

RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS BENEFICIAL FOR DEVELOPING CROPS

Through the weekend into early next week, multiple rounds of rain are expected to move through the region, keeping the pattern on the wetter side. Rainfall will help emerging spring wheat, but parts of Montana could use more rainfall to help improve wheat ratings. Recent rainfall in the Dakotas has been beneficial for range land and developing corn and soybeans. Conditions could trend drier later next week.

WET SOILS SLOW DOWN WHEAT HARVEST AND COTTON PLANTING IN THE DELTA

Wet conditions continue across the Delta through the weekend, but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into next week as well, which doesn't bode well for those trying to finish cotton planting or start wheat harvest. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) and impacting the Delta looks minimal into next week.

RAINY PATTERN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Multiple disturbances are expected to pass through the Prairies into next week, providing some areas of heavier rain at times. The more active weather pattern is favorable for early growth as well as reducing the risks for wildfires. Temperatures will fluctuate between above and below normal through next week as cold fronts provide brief shots of cooler air.

SAFRINHA HARVEST SLOWS DOWN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions have extended across southern areas for the past few days. A larger system develops this weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace, but wheat could use more rain for establishment. A parade of systems is possible across southern areas throughout next week before potentially trending drier by the end of the week.

WEEKEND SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA

The south and east could see more rainfall into the weekend. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain has been favoring western areas as a slow-moving system spins in western Russia through the weekend.

RAIN FAVORS SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA INTO NEXT WEEK

High pressure will keep eastern areas on the drier side, although a few systems will be moving through southern Australia that could provide some needed rainfall for winter wheat and canola. Fronts will graze southwest Australia into next week and there could be heavier rainfall with a stronger front early next week. Warmer temperatures are also expected to build in western areas early next week and expand east throughout the week.

BRIEF SLOW DOWN FOR WHEAT HARVEST IN NORTHERN CHINA THIS WEEKEND

Wheat harvest is underway across the North China Plain and relatively dry conditions have led to favorable conditions for harvest. Showers will become more widespread by the weekend, but the return of a drier pattern looks possible again by early next week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough through next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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