Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system from the Rockies will provide scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Plains and Midwest late this week and this weekend and fronts continue to drift through Argentina this week. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN ON THE WAY FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A system will continue to work through eastern areas on Tuesday. Another system later this week should bring more widespread rain chances and the threat for severe thunderstorms. More systems are forecast for the late weekend and next week, keeping the region very active. Wet areas across the south are going to have many chances for bringing more water through, delaying planting and drowning winter wheat. Limited areas of drought across the northwest will have opportunity for further reduction. Temperatures will continue to swing with systems moving through.

PLANTING PROGRESS COULD COME TO A HALT LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

It was largely dry over the weekend, favorable for planting. But with temperatures like summer across the south, it has not been favorable for developing winter wheat. The region should start to get more active again later this week and this weekend with a couple of systems moving through. Southwestern areas that have been somewhat drier lately need to see more rain and they may get it with a system that comes through this weekend, which is targeting this area with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms. The pattern next week also looks favorable for bringing more rain chances through the region.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN NEED OF MORE MOISTURE AHEAD OF PLANTING

Though the weather pattern has been active and soil moisture has improved in a lot of areas, long-term drought remains across much of the region and will not go away easily. Another system moving through later this week could bring some showers, but there is one that should move through over the weekend or early next week that has a chance for at least eastern areas to receive needed rainfall. While temperatures are riding a roller coaster this week, they should trend below normal next week, which may delay the rising of soil temperatures and planting.

FLOODING RISK COULD CONTINUE IN THE DELTA THIS WEEKEND

The past few days have been on the drier side, allowing for better conditions to drain excessive water out of soils. Flooding along the Mississippi will take a lot of time to be reduced. A more active weather pattern this weekend and next week could create further flood conditions and limit potential for fieldwork, causing delays and potential damage.

SKEPTICISM ON RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved into the south over the weekend, bringing some much-needed heavier rain. Additional fronts moving up from Argentina should be supplying continued rainfall through next week. If these fronts produce what is being forecast, that should benefit pollinating corn. If they under-produce, then the below-normal soil moisture will be called upon to provide needed moisture too early and that could damage the corn.

FRONTS CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN THROUGH ARGENTINA THIS WEEK

A front will continue to bring periods of moderate rain to central Argentina on Tuesday. Another front will move through late this week. The country will likely get drier next week. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and would prefer drier weather to harvest so some delays may occur through the middle of this week. Next week's weather should allow for more harvest progress.

CAUCASUS SEE RAIN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SHOWERS LIMITED ELSEWHERE IN THE BLACK SEA

Above normal temperatures are expected to expand through this week and next week. A system in far southwest Russia will continue to bring showers into the Caucasus on Tuesday. Systems regularly moving through Europe will lose a lot of their moisture as they move into Ukraine and western Russia, providing only limited and spotty showers through early next week. The lower precipitation forecast is not favorable for much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia that are still trying to recover from long-term drought.

SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA REMAINS DRY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND

Soils have more moisture for winter wheat and canola planting after recent rains in western Australia. Northeastern areas have seen some drier weather after heavy rain, creating mostly favorable conditions as well. The southeast has been much drier and is in need of some rain. These areas should get some rainfall near the coast later this weekend. But northeastern areas may start to get too dry again with little rainfall in the forecast for the rest of the month.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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