Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Up and down temperatures in the U.S., improved rain for Argentina and central Brazil, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Rounds of showers went through the Midwest this weekend and early this week, including some snow. Recent good rainfall should help to ease drought on a widespread basis but is delaying remaining fieldwork. Cold temperatures will moderate at the end of the week and above-normal temperatures are likely for the weekend into early next week. But the pattern will stay active with additional showers possible this weekend and next week at times followed by another shot of colder air.

TEMPERATURES MODERATING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Cold temperatures have been in place the last several mornings in the Central and Southern Plains, making for widespread frosts and freezes which continue across the region through Thursday morning, slowing growth for winter wheat. In the north, frosts will be more common going forward. Some rain may go through northern areas Friday and Saturday, and again early next week, but most of the region will be dry until the middle of next week, when a better chance for widespread showers moves through with a potential storm system.

LINGERING COLD, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy snow that fell across the Northern Plains last week will take some time to melt and keep temperatures low, even through a warmup this weekend. The pattern will stay fairly active with occasional light showers, including some snow, through next week. The colder and wetter conditions will continue to make remaining fieldwork difficult to accomplish, especially north.

FROSTS AND FREEZES FOR DELTA

Periods of showers occurred in the Delta this weekend into Monday, including some heavier-than-expected rain across northern areas that should help with water levels on the Mississippi River. Cold air in the region will produce widespread frosts and freezes for the next couple of mornings. The chance for precipitation increases again next week as a system may move through with some showers.

INCREASING RAIN FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Several systems moving through southern areas this week continue to produce heavy precipitation, which creates problems with flooding for developing corn and soybeans as well as damaging remaining wheat. Southern areas will catch a dry spell this weekend into early next week, but it will be short with more showers moving through mid- to late-next week. Central areas will see improved precipitation, which will help with soybean planting and establishment in most areas, as well as keeping temperatures from getting too hot.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, COLD FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers continue in Argentina through Thursday, favoring remaining filling winter wheat and developing corn as well as producing better soil moisture for early soybean planting. However, colder temperatures are also moving in with the rain, which may produce some limited frosts over southern areas throughout the rest of the week. After a break this weekend, showers should move through with another system next week.

MORE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Wave-after-wave of precipitation will continue to move through Europe next week, keeping soil moisture high, but making fieldwork difficult. Temperatures will largely stay above normal for most of the continent this week, with cooler temperatures moving into the west next week. Rain and mild temperatures will keep winter wheat from going dormant.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE BLACK SEA

Active weather in Europe will make for occasional precipitation in the Black Sea region for the next couple of weeks, which may help to keep enough soil moisture around for wheat to develop before going dormant in November. Warm temperatures over the next couple of weeks will promote growth as well.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY DRY

Some showers will develop over eastern Australia Friday into Monday as the pattern gives these areas potential for some scattered showers, but precipitation deficits remain large. Dryness elsewhere is unfavorable for immature wheat and canola as well as cotton and sorghum planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.