Commodities Market Impact Weather

A switch from summer warmth to fall chill in the U.S., along with a burst of rain, the on-time start to the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness issues in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

WARM FOR MIDWEST, BUT CHANGING NEXT WEEK

Recent rainfall in the Midwest was heavy in spots, but with how dry soils have been, delays to harvest and winter wheat planting will likely be short until more rain comes next week. A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday through Friday with areas of scattered showers. Western areas are currently forecast to see the most widespread and heavy rain. Temperatures behind the front will be much colder, leading to the potential for widespread frosts for late next week and weekend.

RAIN INCREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers will be possible through Monday in the Central and Southern Plains with a system in the West producing just enough energy into the region. A front should push eastward Tuesday and Wednesday with more widespread showers, some of which may be heavy. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment where they occur but may delay harvest a bit. Cold air will follow the system and could produce areas of frost in some locations late next week.

FRONT ACTIVE IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will remain in the Northern Plains, producing scattered showers through Tuesday or Wednesday. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans but will hamper early harvest progress. Cold air following the system may lead to widespread frosts later next week and weekend.

DRY FOR THE DELTA

Drier weather will continue in the Delta well into next week, forcing crops to maturity and favoring harvest. A front will move through late next week with scattered showers being possible but will be too late to provide any significant benefits to this year's crop. With the continued drought building in the region, and especially across the South, the rain will be welcome, even if it does produce a limited harvest delay.

START TO WET SEASON FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they will be isolated for most of next week. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding. Another front moving in the middle of next week could add to the heavy rain totals there.

ARGENTINA NEEDS MORE RAIN

An overall drier pattern continues in Argentina through the weekend which should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off last year's historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however, and another front will move through early-mid next week with the promise of more showers. The region will need to see this continuing, especially if showers are going to be light with each system.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN EUROPE

Most areas of Europe have favorable soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A front is bringing a few showers in some areas across the north and east through the weekend. Another front will move through early-mid next week with limited showers as well. Drier conditions across the south are not ideal for winter wheat planting and establishment, though recent rainfall has kept these areas in good shape for now.

BLACK SEA TOO DRY

A front will push through the Black Sea region this weekend and early next week but is forecast with only limited showers. Soil moisture has been falling for winter wheat establishment, an unfavorable situation, and will need more moisture soon for good root establishment before dormancy. The region may get some help with a system later next week or weekend, though that is questionable.

AUSTRALIA MOSTLY HOT AND DRY

It should be largely dry in Australia through the weekend. Well-above-normal temperatures have been putting stress on filling wheat and canola as soil moisture continues to drop. A stronger cold front will move through next week, breaking down the heat temporarily but it is not forecast to produce much rainfall outside of the far southeast. Outside of that area, soil moisture continues to be low for filling winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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