Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Slow snowmelt in the Northern Plains, cold air continuing in the Corn Belt, and rain in the southwestern Plains are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLDER

Cold air produced frosts and freezes over the last few mornings in the Midwest. Additional frosts continue Wednesday and Thursday. The cold air may cause damage to more-developed wheat and emergent corn and soybeans. A system will come through late week and weekend with widespread showers, mostly in the form of rain. Cooler temperatures will generally be in place into early May, unfavorable for planting and supportive for additional frosts.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is bringing widespread showers to the drought areas in the Central and Southern Plains into Thursday and could be substantial in some areas. That will help to reduce the impact of the drought but should not make much of a dent in it. Additional showers could be possible late this week with another system. Wheat may not benefit from the rain too much due to poor conditions, but the increased soil moisture would favor forages and corn and soybean planting and establishment.

COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS EASING NEXT WEEK

Below-normal temperatures continue in the Northern Plains through the weekend but will still be warm enough to continue melting the remaining snowpack in the northeast. A system will bring in scattered showers over the next few days, mostly in the form of rain despite the cooler temperatures. Rain should not be heavy enough to increase pressure on the ongoing flooding across the Red River by too much, but the colder temperatures will slow the drying process, limiting fieldwork and planting. Temperatures should get closer to normal next week, being more favorable for fieldwork.

WETTER CONDITIONS IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers are expected with a couple of systems in the Delta through the weekend. Many areas of the region are wet, limiting spring planting. Areas that have been able to plant will find good conditions for germination and early growth, though temperatures will be on the cooler end of normal through the end of the month. Northern areas may catch a frost early next week.

COLD AIR EASING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES NEXT WEEK

Below-normal temperatures continue to limit melting of the heavier snowpack across the eastern Canadian Prairies. Western areas with less snow cover should see higher temperatures. The overall cooler nature will continue to limit or prohibit fieldwork and seeding across the east, but western areas may see a window opening. Some showers will move through with a system this week, being a mix of rain and snow, but should dry out afterward. Warmer temperatures will arrive across more of the region next week.

SPOTTY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A system is moving through southern Brazil with some showers over the next day or two. Another system is likely to stall out over southern areas next week with scattered showers. Overall, corn conditions are good for the time-being, with an eye toward additional rain for the next couple of weeks and potential frosts through June.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Most of the agricultural areas in Argentina have missed out on recent rainfall and conditions are favorable for harvesting a severely damaged crop. Winter wheat areas are in need of more moisture as the crop will start to be planted in the next week or two. A system moving through Sunday and Monday may provide some of that needed moisture.

GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF EUROPE

A couple of systems will spread showers through most of Europe over the next week. Spain is in drought and in need of more rain for both winter and summer crops but will largely stay dry. Conditions across most of the rest of the continent are in good shape.

FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE BLACK SEA

More showers are falling in the Black Sea region with another system that is slowly moving through this week. Some chilly air may move into Ukraine through this weekend, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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