DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a broad ridge across North America with a trough moving through it in the West and another trough in the North Pacific and Alaska. The Pacific trough will be the catalyst to send several pieces of energy through North America over the next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

For the outlook period, the Pacific trough drops into the West next week, producing at least one larger system east of the Rockies and being followed by another round of colder air.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to above normal for the North and East with below normal temperatures in the South. Warmth will quickly return to areas east of the Rockies next week while the west cools down underneath the trough moving in. The trough is likely to produce a strong storm system in the middle of the country next week, though models are trying to figure out how that will come together.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...85 AT MARATHON, FL

LOW SUN...17 BELOW ZERO AT LIMESTONE, ME AND CHESUNCOOK, ME

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT SUNDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 4.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a broad ridge across North America with a trough moving through it in the West and another trough in the North Pacific and Alaska. The Pacific trough will be the catalyst to send several pieces of energy through North America over the next week before it drops into the West next week. The pieces of energy will produce a few storm systems.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to above normal for the North and East with below-normal temperatures in the South. Warmth will quickly return to areas east of the Rockies next week while the west cools down underneath the trough moving in. The trough is likely to produce a strong storm system in the middle of the country next week, though models are trying to figure out how that will come together.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above-normal temperatures returned to the region over the weekend and should stay in the region over the next week or so, reducing stress and feed requirements for livestock. Temperatures will be on a cooling trend again next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A front will move across the region on Monday with some limited showers. A low-pressure center will form along the front across the southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday where showers will be more significant. Some cooler air will move in behind this system to close out the week, but nothing significantly cold that would produce too much stress for livestock. Warmer air will quickly replace the cold again this weekend.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures were quickly replaced by warm air this past weekend. Though a front and system will pass through this week with scattered showers, temperatures behind this system will still be mild for this time of year, which continues into next week.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Though area rivers are full due to recent rainfall, a lack of precipitation farther north will send Mississippi River water levels down through this week and are forecast to continue next week as well. Some precipitation will be added this week but is not forecast to have a significant enough of an effect to stop the drop in water levels.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have returned to central and northern areas, where breaks in the heavy showers have closed for the week. Soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting remain behind schedule. If the delays are too great this week and continue through next week as well, corn may have to deal with a shortened wet season and runs the risk of running into its pollination stages as the wet season rains shut down -- unfavorable weather conditions for corn production. Southern areas continue to have issues with pronounced dryness, which continues this week as well.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The country is in the midst of a dry stretch that lasts this week before showers move through again this weekend with a cold front. Some spotty showers may occur in a couple of spots this week, though rising temperatures will negate any precipitation that falls until the weekend.

The showers that come with the front are unlikely to have a significantly positive impact on soil moisture, though another front that follows it next week could be more substantial. Crops have had a boost in crop conditions the last couple of weeks, but the heat and dryness this week should have negative effects again.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The eastern half of the continent saw showers over the weekend. A piece of energy is pushing southwest into Spain where showers will continue through midweek. While below-normal temperatures beset the region, it should not be cold enough to produce widespread problems with winterkill. It should be drier for the majority of the continent until a front moves through next week. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though France could use more rain and the crop remains vulnerable to a blast of cold air with somewhat limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures rising above normal.

East: Lake-effect snow. Temperatures rising above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated snow east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers southeast Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.