Commodities Market Impact Weather

System Moving Out, But Active Weather Continues

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued active weather in the U.S., but not for HRW wheat, and the early end of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

COLD TEMPERATURES, OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEST

Moderate to heavy rain moved through the Midwest on Wednesday, but much of the severe weather stayed south. The system continues to wrap up on Thursday and Friday, with isolated showers across the north and strong wind gusts. Another system will bring a mix of rain and snow showers through the region late Sunday into Tuesday, with another weak system with spotty showers mid-to late-next week. Cold temperatures that build in combined with wet soils will slow progress for planting through much of next week.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT MISSING OUT ON ACTIVE WEATHER

Scattered showers again moved through eastern areas of the Southern Plains on Wednesday but occurred in just a few lines. The front that went through the region this week will lift back north, producing showers for Friday and Saturday while another system moves through over the weekend with additional showers. Another system will move through next week with more spotty showers. The active pattern continues to miss hard red winter wheat areas in the southwest as drought continues to play a significant role. Colder temperatures settling in through early next week may cause freeze damage to winter wheat in some areas.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Several waves of showers continue in the Pacific Northwest through Saturday as a trough remains in the area. That should improve soil moisture for wheat, but cold temperatures will limit growth and could produce multiple days of hard freezes that could cause some damage to wheat and delay spring wheat planting. Additional waves of showers are expected next week as well.

COLD LIMITING SNOWMELT IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Winds continue to whip around the Northern Plains on Thursday. The snow from the system gradually decreases throughout the day with the system pushing into Canada. Heavy snow that has occurred across the north has produced 1 to 2 feet of snow, but also over one to over two inches of liquid equivalent for drought areas in western North Dakota and Montana. A heavy price to pay for increased moisture. More snow showers will come with a system this weekend, but only a few inches more are expected. The snow will take a long time to melt off with cold air settling in through most of next week.

MORE SHOWERS HEADED FOR DELTA

Another round of severe storms moved through the Delta on Wednesday, along with moderate to heavy rainfall. The front to the system will lift back into the region Friday and Saturday with more showers, being picked up by another system on Sunday. And more showers may come with a system in the middle of next week. Areas over the south that are still in drought are seeing favorable rainfall, but wetter conditions will continue to make it difficult for planting progress.

DRY SEASON STARTING EARLY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers will continue to slide northward through Brazil over the next couple of days, settling into northern areas and out of much of the safrinha corn production by the weekend. This may be the last of the widespread showers for central Brazil as the region heads into the dry season about two weeks early with corn going into pollination. Declining soil moisture over the last few weeks is concerning for much of central Brazil. While showers will leave southern areas for about a week, they are likely to return before the end of the month but are unlikely to penetrate farther north.

ARGENTINA DRY AGAIN

Dryness in Argentina for about the next week will not be favorable for the remaining filling corn and soybeans. Showers return in the middle of next week, but only briefly. Winter wheat planting will see favorable conditions, though soil moisture is not ideal.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

An upper-level system brought scattered showers to the Black Sea region over the last few days. Another will bring more this weekend into next week, increasing soil moisture. This should favor winter wheat but could limit fieldwork for corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick