Commodities Market Impact Weather

HRW Wheat Missing Out on Active Weather

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

OMAHA (DTN) -- An active period of weather in the U.S., but not for HRW wheat, and favorable rainfall in southern Brazil, but not in central Brazil, are the weather factors holding the market's attention on Tuesday.

MORE SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend and Monday, hitting remaining drought areas in the northwest more than elsewhere in the region, a highly beneficial scenario for most areas. Another system will pinwheel slowly across the region through Friday. Colder air will move through with this system, which will slow the warming of soils. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend will be the cause of some more precipitation next week and will be followed by colder air as well.

LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers moved across southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas on Monday. A system that moves through on Tuesday will not provide much precipitation as the drought continues to have a negative impact on wheat. A pool of colder air moving into the West this weekend could provide northern and eastern areas with better chances for precipitation next week, but southwestern areas are more likely to be missed.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Pacific Northwest on Monday, maintaining soil moisture in drought areas. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation next week.

INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A somewhat larger system will slowly pinwheel through the Northern Plains over the next few days, offering chances for more widespread precipitation. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation next week, likely in the form of some heavy snow. This will be accompanied by colder temperatures for several days.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Scattered showers are moving through the Delta on Tuesday with more expected to develop along a front for Wednesday. This will help drought areas in the south, while keeping soils wet across the north. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more showers and thunderstorms next week.

DRYNESS CONCERNING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Isolated showers will remain in central Brazil over the next week, but many areas may remain completely dry, drawing soil moisture out when it should be being built up. Safrinha corn will be able to use the available moisture, but this will leave the region more vulnerable if showers do not return before the end of the wet season. More persistent showers will continue through this next week across the south. These areas have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth, which is favorable.

DRYNESS FOR ARGENTINA

Outside of far northern Brazil, drier conditions are expected through Thursday with a chance for spotty showers Friday into next week. Rainfall will generally be light and not much help for filling corn and soybeans.

OCCASIONAL BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, adding to the good precipitation over the winter and favoring wheat that is slowly coming out of dormancy. Though precipitation will be less common this week, a few more chances come by the weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick