DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...79 AT CAMP PENDLETON CA

LOW THU...36 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...FORT SMITH AR AND MEMPHIS TN 0.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West, a cutoff low in the Southwest, and a trough in the East. The ridge-west and trough-east pattern will continue into next week.

The ridge will break down in the middle of next week and a new trough will dig into the West at the end of next week, moving into the Central next weekend and being replaced by another ridge in the West.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement with the upper level pattern during the period but treat storm systems quite differently. The models are also being inconsistent between runs as well. I will use a blend, but favor the European. The inconsistency in the outlook period is causing a lower-confidence forecast.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal across the north and west and near to below normal across the south and east. Temperatures will slowly rise through the period across the south and east, but fall in the West late next week. Near to below normal temperatures will spread into the Central along with the trough next weekend. Showers will start moving into the Pacific Northwest late next week and into the Plains and Midwest next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Relative dryness and mild temperatures will produce little stress to livestock over the next 7 days. Cooler temperatures and some snow will be possible late next week and next weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system brought moderate to heavy snow in Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday. Most areas saw some precipitation, benefiting winter wheat. The crop may becoming dormant due to lack of precipitation and temperatures falling below freezing in the west. A week of dryness is expected before the next system moves into the Plains late next week or next weekend.

MIDWEST (CORN/WHEAT): Snow covers some of the winter wheat belt in Ohio, likely turning it dormant for the year in good condition. Other wheat areas find adequate conditions for the end of fall. Dryness is likely for the next week or so, though some showers may develop over the east on Friday and Monday. Near to below normal temperatures will not help drain fields or melt snow, causing further delay for the last of the corn harvest in the east into next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON): Recent showers have caused delays and quality issues for the later stages of the cotton harvest. After showers move through Friday, a week of dryness is expected, helping soils to recover and the late stages of harvest to resume.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers over the south have relieved some stress on developing corn and soybeans from Rio Grande do Sul to Parana.

Showers are migrating back into central and northern areas by and will continue through next week, easing significant stress for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across much of the country over the last week, with moderate to heavy showers across the north. Showers will leave northern areas Friday, followed by a near week of dryness. Areas that have been missed in the south could find more stress for developing corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): With temperatures running below freezing for much of the north and east, the crop is entering dormancy in good condition. Scattered showers in Spain and Italy will maintain favorable conditions for developing winter wheat.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered moderate to heavy showers fell across the region over the last week, benefiting planting and early establishment, especially across the east. Significant rainfall deficits exist across Morocco.

Widespread moderate showers will develop through the weekend and much of next week, significantly benefiting planting and early development.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Scattered moderate to heavy showers continue to benefit developing corn and sugarcane. Showers will continue to be in the area through the next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent dryness for much of New South Wales and Queensland has put stress on developing cotton and sorghum as temperatures climbed well into the upper 30s and lower 40s Celsius. But scattered showers have started to move back into the region and will continue through the weekend, bringing beneficial rainfall to much of the area.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Recent and forecast showers have been adequate for palm oil prospects as monsoon showers continue.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers east Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered moderate showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday, moderate at times. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers late Tuesday.

Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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