DTN Daily Basis Comments

Friday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 21 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 1 cent at $3.10. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 44 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 2 cents at $8.29. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 2 cents stronger at 23 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 2 cents at $4.06. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 5 cents stronger at 24 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 10 cents at $5.01.

DTN CashChange FromNationalContractChange from
CommodityIndexPrev DayAvg. BasisMonthPrev Day
Corn:$3.10$0.01-$0.21Jul$0.004
Soybeans:$8.29$0.02-$0.44Jul$0.004
SRW Wheat:$4.64-$0.05-$0.19Jul$0.006
HRW Wheat:$4.06-$0.02-$0.23Jul$0.021
HRS Wheat:$5.01$0.10-$0.24Jul$0.052

CORN: The national average corn basis for Thursday is at 21 cents under the July futures, unchanged from than Wednesday’s basis. July corn closed up 3/4 cent Thursday in spite of another bearish weekly export sales and shipments report. For the week ended June 11 USDA showed an increase of 14.1 million bushels (mb) of corn export sales for 2019-20 and an increase of 4.5 mb for 2020-21, while last week's shipments were below what is needed each week to achieve USDA's current export estimate for 2019-20. In addition, commitments are down 14% versus 1 year ago. With exports lagging still, corn is looking to the ethanol sector for better news, starting with stronger demand which may be slowly returning as cash ethanol prices have been very strong recently. The basis for shuttles delivered to the Pacific Northwest remains steady at +110N, while rail delivered to St. Louis was 3 cents stronger and the CIF NOLA basis was unchanged. Domestic basis overall remains steady and ethanol plants continue to bid according to needs.

SOYBEANS: The national average soybean basis for Thursday is at 44 cents under the July futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday’s basis. July soybeans closed up 1 3/4 cents Thursday, due in part to the $1 higher close in soybean meal. The weekly export sales and shipment report Thursday was neutral for soybeans for the week ended June 11. USDA reported an increase of 19.8 mb of soybean export sales for 2019-20 and an increase of 50.8 mb (1,382,100 mt) for 2020-21. Export shipments last week were below what is needed each week to reach USDA's current export estimate, while total commitments in 2019-20 are down 7% versus one year ago. The track PNW shuttle basis was steady, with the Sept-Oct basis still at a 14 cent to 25 carry versus the June basis. The CIF Gulf basis was 1 cent weaker, while rail delivered to St. Louis was 1 cent stronger.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT: The national average SRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 19 cents under the Chicago July futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday’s basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT: The national average SRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 23 cents under the Chicago July futures, 2 cents stronger than Wednesday’s basis. KC July closed down 4 cents Thursday, but the real story was the strength in the KC spot market as mills continue to chase higher proteins, meaning most anything above 10% protein as we continue to see the new crop so far at sub-11%. The premium for 11% protein was 5 cents stronger, 11.4% was 10 cents stronger, 11.6 was 19 cents stronger, 11.8% was 9 cents stronger, 12% was 20 cents stronger, 12.2% through 12.8% was 15 cents stronger, 13% was 5 cents stronger and 13.2% through 14% was 10 cents stronger. The bid for ordinary protein at the Texas Gulf was 15 cents weaker this week as, so far, there is plenty of that protein in the new crop.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT: The national average HRS wheat basis for Thursday is at 25 cents under the Minneapolis July futures, 5 cents stronger than Wednesday’s basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis July futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were not quoted, 13.5% proteins were at +135, 14% proteins were down 10 cents at +150*, 14.5% proteins were not quoted and 15% proteins were down 15 cents at +155*. Receipts were 58 cars, which includes two trains.* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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