Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Southern Brazil rain chances in the next five to seven days, and heavy to very heavy rains leading to possible flood concerns in the United States, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

HEAVY MIDWEST RAIN, POSSIBLY SNOW

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for heavy to very heavy rains likely to cover much of the Midwest from Missouri and Illinois to Michigan and Ohio and southward into the Delta at the end of this week and this weekend. This is likely to mean flooding, possibly severe flooding in some locations, and impacts to winter wheat and to transport. Significant snow may develop on the backside of the system this weekend, especially in the Wisconsin-Michigan area. This would have an impact on travel and transport as well.

RAIN CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, eastern and south-central areas will benefit from increased rain chances during the next few days. Western areas remain drier. No major cold weather threats to harm wheat are expected, but the much colder weather to the north will continue to be watched. There are no significant concerns in the feedlots at this time.

COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, no significant precipitation is expected during the next seven days, although some light snow may occur at times. The region will see episodes of low temperatures, possibly very cold at times. Increasing stress to livestock can be expected during periods of very cold weather.

POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN

In Brazil, mostly favorable conditions continue in Parana and Mato Grosso, and there have been recent improvements in Goias and in northeast Brazil. The biggest questions today revolve around how much rain will occur in the Rio Grande do Sul area during the next five to seven days and how much cooling would occur in the area. The current thinking is there is a good chance for needed rain and less hot weather, but there is still some uncertainty in this outlook.

VARIABLE ARGENTINA CONDITIONS

Episodes of scattered showers and no major hot spells will favor key growing areas in Cordoba and Santa Fe in Argentina during this period. A somewhat drier outlook is seen for Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Recent rainfall in these areas supports favorable development. However, there is still likely some parts of this region that could use more rain.

WARM IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region of Ukraine and west Russia, there are no significant cold weather threats during the next seven to 10 days.

PRECIPITATION FOR CHINA

Moderate to locally heavy precipitation has occurred in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas during the weekend and early this week. This means adequate to surplus soil moisture and in some cases increasing snow cover. In either case, this is favorable for overwintering crops.

DRY EUROPEAN TREND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS

West-central and south Europe is likely to continue drier than normal during the next five days. After that, some increase in rain is likely, especially through west-central and southwest Europe. There is no significant cold weather threats in Europe. This is mostly favorable conditions for winter crops.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Increasing coverage of scattered showers and thundershowers and less hot weather will help improve conditions for maize and sugarcane in South Africa.

BENEFICIAL SHOWERS IN INDIA

Key growing areas for winter wheat in Pakistan and northwest India have received beneficial showers since the weekend. This included Punjab in Pakistan, and Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and the Bihar region in India. Not much of these showers reached into the key growing area for winter rapeseed, however.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

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