Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Milder Midwest conditions but with periods of precipitation disrupting the late harvest in the Midwest and Northern Plains, and beneficial rain for soybean crops in northern and eastern areas of Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

MIDWEST PRECIPITATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate precipitation, mostly rain, to slow harvest progress in the western Midwest early this week. Later in the week, rain will move into the southern and eastern Midwest and delay fall fieldwork there. The western Midwest will see mild weather for the next few days, with temperatures averaging above normal today, well above normal Wednesday, and near to above normal Thursday. As for the eastern Midwest, temperatures will average near to below normal today, near to above normal west and near normal east tomorrow, and above normal Thursday. Wetter weather may continue during the six-to-10-day period for the Midwest, with temperatures expected to average near to above normal.

SLOW PROGRESS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, episodes of scattered light precipitation during the next seven days will allow continued progress for the much-delayed soybean and corn harvests. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period but no conditions that look very cold.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop areas will have milder weather during the next 10 days, generally favorable for winter wheat, although still cool to cold at times. There's some chance for beneficial rainfall favoring southern and eastern areas during the next five days and possibly during the six-to-10-day period. However, it's still relatively dry through west-central and northwest areas.

MIXED BRAZIL CONDITIONS

Brazil will see mostly dry weather and above-normal temperatures this week in Parana and southern Mato Grosso that will deplete moisture for developing soybeans. This situation bears watching. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms this week in the northern and eastern Mato Grosso and Goias will benefit developing soybeans. Hot, dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul at this time is not overly a concern, as it had been wet prior to this week. The longer-range forecast suggests rain will return to the area late in the 10-day period.

INCREASING SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, increasing showers during the next seven days will improve conditions for planting and developing corn and early soybean planting, especially later this week and this weekend when temperatures will also become lower. It is hot in some areas through Thursday. The cold front passage this coming Sunday might include severe weather.

EUROPE FLOODING CONTINUES

Heavy rains continue to move through north and central Italy. This area has been under extreme flood risk recently and this added rain will further complicate the situation. In addition to the risk to lives and property, there is also some impact likely to the winter grains in the region.

There appears to be some chance for drier weather during the six-to-10-day period, although still somewhat uncertain at this time. This would be favorable if verified.

ONGOING AUSTRALIA DROUGHT

The eastern Australia crop area is likely to see below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures during the next 10 days. This increases risks to the summer crops planted in the region, especially due to ongoing drought conditions.

SOUTH AFRICA SHOWERS

South Africa's crop areas see increasing showers during the next five days that will help improve conditions for planting and early development. Longer range it looks to turn drier and possibly hot during the six-to-10-day period. This will bear watching.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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